We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results on Feb 23, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 16.78%.
Moderna’s shares have risen 16.8% in the past year against the industry’s decline of 10.0%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the same once. The average surprise is 20.04%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
During the fourth quarter, Moderna’s sales are likely to have been driven by its mRNA-based COVID-19 monovalent and bivalent vaccine doses across the globe. However, like other COVID-19 vaccine makers, sales are likely to have been much lower than the prior-year quarter, with the impact of the pandemic receding. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter product sales stand at $5.02 billion and $4.82 billion, respectively.
Towards the end of 2022, the FDA granted multiple label expansions to mRNA-1273.222, Moderna’s BA.4/BA.5 Omicron-targeting bivalent COVID vaccine. Following these label expansions, mRNA-1273.222 is now authorized as a single booster dose in individuals six months and older. The bivalent vaccine has also demonstrated robust neutralizing activity against new and evolving variants like the BQ.1.1 variant.
Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna is developing more than 30 candidates in different stages of clinical studies, majorly mRNA-based products targeting different indications, including cancer. The company is developing a few pipeline candidates in collaboration with partners like Merck (MRK - Free Report) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, which use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. These partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are reflected as collaboration revenues and vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues in fourth-quarter 2022 stands at $144 million.
Last December, Moderna and partner Merck announced positive data from the phase IIb KEYNOTE-942 study evaluating their personalized cancer vaccine (PCV) candidate as an adjuvant treatment in melanoma patients. Data from the study showed that the PCV candidate, when combined with Merck’s blockbuster drug, Keytruda exhibited a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of disease recurrence or death by 44%. Based on this data, Moderna and Merck plan to discuss these results with regulatory authorities and start a late-stage study on melanoma patients later this year.
Moderna may also discuss the progress in the development of its three mRNA-based vaccines targeting cytomegalovirus (CMV), influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). These vaccine candidates are currently in late-stage development.
Investors could expect an update on the regulatory pathway for Moderna’s RSV vaccine. Last month, management announced that it would submit a regulatory application seeking approval for this RSV vaccine to the FDA in first-half 2023.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -3.72% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.48 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.66.
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Allogene (ALLO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.70% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Shares of Allogene have declined 28.8% in the past year. Earnings of Allogene beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 9.44%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Allogene’s earnings beat estimates by 6.45%.
Bayer (BAYRY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The stock price of Bayer has risen 3.8% in the past year. Bayer beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. Bayer has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.23%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Bayer’s earnings missed estimates by 3.33%. Bayer is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 28.
Image: Bigstock
Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results on Feb 23, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 16.78%.
Moderna’s shares have risen 16.8% in the past year against the industry’s decline of 10.0%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the same once. The average surprise is 20.04%.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
During the fourth quarter, Moderna’s sales are likely to have been driven by its mRNA-based COVID-19 monovalent and bivalent vaccine doses across the globe. However, like other COVID-19 vaccine makers, sales are likely to have been much lower than the prior-year quarter, with the impact of the pandemic receding. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter product sales stand at $5.02 billion and $4.82 billion, respectively.
Towards the end of 2022, the FDA granted multiple label expansions to mRNA-1273.222, Moderna’s BA.4/BA.5 Omicron-targeting bivalent COVID vaccine. Following these label expansions, mRNA-1273.222 is now authorized as a single booster dose in individuals six months and older. The bivalent vaccine has also demonstrated robust neutralizing activity against new and evolving variants like the BQ.1.1 variant.
Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna is developing more than 30 candidates in different stages of clinical studies, majorly mRNA-based products targeting different indications, including cancer. The company is developing a few pipeline candidates in collaboration with partners like Merck (MRK - Free Report) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, which use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. These partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are reflected as collaboration revenues and vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues in fourth-quarter 2022 stands at $144 million.
Last December, Moderna and partner Merck announced positive data from the phase IIb KEYNOTE-942 study evaluating their personalized cancer vaccine (PCV) candidate as an adjuvant treatment in melanoma patients. Data from the study showed that the PCV candidate, when combined with Merck’s blockbuster drug, Keytruda exhibited a statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of disease recurrence or death by 44%. Based on this data, Moderna and Merck plan to discuss these results with regulatory authorities and start a late-stage study on melanoma patients later this year.
Moderna may also discuss the progress in the development of its three mRNA-based vaccines targeting cytomegalovirus (CMV), influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). These vaccine candidates are currently in late-stage development.
Investors could expect an update on the regulatory pathway for Moderna’s RSV vaccine. Last month, management announced that it would submit a regulatory application seeking approval for this RSV vaccine to the FDA in first-half 2023.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -3.72% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.48 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.66.
Zacks Rank: Moderna has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Allogene (ALLO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.70% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Shares of Allogene have declined 28.8% in the past year. Earnings of Allogene beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 9.44%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Allogene’s earnings beat estimates by 6.45%.
Bayer (BAYRY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The stock price of Bayer has risen 3.8% in the past year. Bayer beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. Bayer has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.23%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Bayer’s earnings missed estimates by 3.33%. Bayer is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 28.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.