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Here's How Kroger (KR) Looks Placed Ahead of Q4 Earnings

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The Kroger Co. (KR - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Mar 2 before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $34,806 million, indicating an improvement of 5.3% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this operator of a supermarket chain is expected to have declined year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has been stable at 89 cents over the past 30 days, which suggests a decline of 2.2% from the year-ago period.

The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.42%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Cincinnati, OH-based company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3%.

The Kroger Co. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Kroger Co. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Kroger Co. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Kroger Co. Quote

Key Factors to Note

Kroger has been making significant investments to enhance product freshness and quality and expand digital capabilities and payment solutions. Impressively, it has been introducing new items under its “Our Brands” portfolio. The company has been expanding its Customer Fulfillment Center to ensure efficient deliveries. Cumulatively, these factors are likely to have favored the company’s fourth-quarter top line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for identical sales, without fuel, for the quarter under discussion is currently pegged at 5.2%. This compared to the increase of 4% in the said metric registered in the year-ago period.

Kroger is focusing on the go-to-market strategy by providing exclusive Kroger products. These differentiated products offer outstanding value and quality to customers. Without a doubt, Kroger’s digital business remains one of its growth drivers, growing 10% year over year in the last quarter. Its Kroger Delivery Now service provides customers with food and household staples in 30 minutes. Also, its focus on the margin-rich alternative profit business bodes well.

On its last earnings call, the company announced the termination of the Express Scripts agreement, effective Dec 31. Management informed that the termination of the contract will reduce fourth-quarter sales by $100 million. This termination will also impact identical sales without fuel by approximately 35 basis points in the said quarter.

Additionally, margins remain an area to watch. Supply-chain issues, increased labor and transportation expenses and higher product cost inflation are likely to have weighed on margins.

What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Kroger this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Kroger has a Zacks Rank #2 but an Earnings ESP of +0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 More Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.53% and a Zacks Rank of #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of $5.53 suggests an increase of 2.2% from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ulta Beauty’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.01 billion, which suggests a rise of 10.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ULTA delivered an earnings beat of 26.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +14.04% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to register a fall in the bottom line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.67 suggests a decrease of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Casey's General’s top line is anticipated to have risen year over year. The consensus mark for CASY’s revenues is pegged at $3.52 billion, indicating an increase of 15.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. Casey's General has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average.

Five Below (FIVE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% and a Zacks Rank of #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.06 suggests an increase of 22.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Five Below’s top line is expected to have increased marginally year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.11 billion, which suggests a rise of 10.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. In the trailing four quarters, FIVE delivered an earnings beat of 26.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

 

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