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Incyte (INCY) Down 8.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Incyte (INCY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 8.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Incyte due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Incyte's Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top

Incyte’s earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the fourth quarter of 2022 on strong Jakafi and newly approved Opzelura.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2022, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 59 cents, up 10 cents from the year-ago quarter, driven by growth in Jakafi and Opzelura.

Total revenues came in at $926.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, increasing by 7% year over year. Sales also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $889.3 million.

Quarter in Detail

Total product and royalty revenues came in at $896.7 million, up 10% from the year-ago quarter. Jakafi’s (a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor approved for polycythemiavera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease) revenues came in at $647.5 million. The figure increased 9% from the year-ago quarter and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $636 million, driven by growth in patient demand across all indications.

The newly approved medicine, Opzelura (ruxolitinib) cream, generated $61.3 million in sales during the fourth quarter.

In July 2022, the FDA approved Opzelura cream 1.5% for the topical treatment of nonsegmental vitiligo in adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older. Opzelura is also approved by the FDA for the topical short-term and non-continuous chronic treatment of mild to moderate atopic dermatitis (AD).

More than 84,000 units of Opzelura were shipped in the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by strong growth in new patient starts across AD and vitiligo as well as broadening formulary coverage.

Net product revenues for Iclusig amounted to $27.6 million, up 2% from the year-ago quarter.

Pemazyre generated $23 million in sales during the fourth quarter, reflecting an increase of 17% year over year.

Minjuvi revenues came in at $4.8 million, up 10% from the year-ago quarter.
Jakafi is marketed by Incyte in the United States and by Novartis as Jakavi outside the country.

Jakavi’s royalty revenues from Novartis for commercialization in ex-U.S. markets declined 5% to $91.2 million.

Incyte also receives royalties from the sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. Its partner, Novartis, has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights for Tabrecta.

Tabrecta’s product royalty revenues came in at $4.2 million, up 36% year over year.

Olumiant’s (baricitinib) product royalty revenues from Eli Lilly came in at $35.9 million, down 46% year over year, impacted by a decrease in net product sales of Olumiant for use as a treatment for COVID-19.

Incyte has a collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly for Olumiant. The drug is a once-daily, oral JAK inhibitor discovered by Incyte and licensed to LLY. It is approved for several types of autoimmune diseases.

Adjusted R&D expenses were $469 million, up 6% from the year-ago quarter, owing to higher investments in late-stage pipeline development. SG&A expenses amounted to $253.2 million, up 21% from the prior-year quarter, due to expenses related to dermatology commercial organizations and activities to support the launch of Opzelura for the treatment of atopic dermatitis and vitiligo.

Pipeline and Regulatory Updates

The new drug application (NDA) for the ruxolitinib extended-release (XR) formulation was accepted by the FDA with a target action date of Mar 23, 2023.

2022 Results

Revenues came in at $3.39 billion, up 14% from 2021, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.36 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.78, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.72.

2023 Guidance

Incyte expects Jakafi revenues to be in the range of $2.53-$2.63 billion. Other Hematology/Oncology net product revenues are now projected in the range of $215-$225 million.


How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -26.13% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Incyte has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Incyte has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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