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Why Is Carlyle (CG) Down 2.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Carlyle Group (CG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Carlyle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Carlyle Q4 Earnings Beat on Lower Expenses, AUM Rises

Carlyle Group reported fourth-quarter 2022 post-tax distributable earnings per share of $1.01, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 96 cents. However, the bottom line declined from $2.01 in the year-ago quarter.

While an increase in assets under management (AUM) balance and lower expenses supported the results. However, a decrease in revenues was a major headwind.

Net income available to common stockholders (GAAP basis) was $127.2 million or 35 cents per share, down significantly from $647.6 million or $1.77 per share in the prior-year quarter.

In 2022, post-tax distributable earnings of $4.34 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.29 but decreased 13.4% year over year. Also, net income available to common stockholders (GAAP basis) of $1.23 billion or $3.35 per share declined from $2.98 billion or $8.20 per share in 2021.

Revenues & Expenses Fall

Segmental revenues were $1.06 billion in the quarter under review, decreasing 44.1% from the year-ago quarter. However, the top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 billion.

Segment revenues decreased 11.1% to $4.40 billion in 2022. However, the top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.37 billion.

Fee revenues in the fourth quarter increased 8.1% year over year to $559.2 million. A rise in fund management fees and fee-related to performance revenues resulted in the uptick. Realized performance revenues plunged 64.8% to $459.7 million.

Total segmental expenses amounted to $626 million, down 36.9%. The decrease was primarily due to a decline in total compensation and benefits expenses.

AUM Increases

As of Dec 31, 2022, total AUM was $372.69 billion, up 23.8% from the prior-year quarter. This was primarily led by an increase in fundraising activity across the platform, specially in Global Credit arising from the strategic advisory services agreement with Fortitude and the CBAM acquisition partially offset by the realization activity.

Fee-earning AUM for the reported quarter was $266.58 billion, jumping 38.1%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, Carlyle has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Carlyle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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