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BioNTech (BNTX) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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BioNTech SE (BNTX - Free Report) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2022 results later this month.

BioNTech's earnings surprise history has been decent so far, having surpassed expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the same in one, with the average surprise being 58.99%. In the last reported quarter, BioNTech delivered an earnings surprise of 92.35%.

Shares of BioNTech have fallen 6.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s 8.1% decline.

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Let us see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

BioNTech’s fourth-quarter revenues are expected to have been driven by the sales of its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, developed in partnership with Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) . The vaccine is approved in several countries and has become a key contributor to BioNTech’s top line.

However, with the impact of the pandemic now receding, sales of BioNTech/Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine are likely to have fallen from the year-ago quarter’s level. Investors will be keen to get an update on the same on the upcoming earnings call.

Revenues declined on a reported basis in the third quarter and the same is likely to have continued in the fourth quarter.

Cost of sales also declined in the third quarter, which is also expected to have prevailed in the fourth quarter, owing to declining sales of COVID-19 vaccines.

Research and development costs soared in the third quarter. The same is expected in the fourth quarter as well because of increased expenses on pipeline activities.

General and administrative expenses have also probably escalated in the fourth quarter driven by the hiring of external services along with an increase in headcount.

Earlier this month, Pfizer and BioNTech applied to the FDA for emergency use authorization of its Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine as a booster (fourth) 3-µg dose in children six months through four years of age.

Last Month, BioNTech and Pfizer reported a supplemental Biologics License Application submission to the FDA for the approval of their Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine as a primary series and booster dose(s) for individuals 12 years of age and older. The approval of the same will harmonize the composition of COVID-19 vaccines across booster and primary series doses.

The companies also received a positive recommendation from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) for the marketing authorization of a 5-µg booster dose of their Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine for children five through 11 years of age in November 2022. The European Commission will review CHMP’s recommendation and is expected to make a positive final decision soon. The same is currently authorized in the European Union as a booster dose for individuals aged 12 years and older.

The authorizations for the booster doses and of the vaccine in younger patient populations are likely to have provided some top-line support.

Activities related to the development of the company’s pipeline candidates are likely to have escalated operating expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BioNTech this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: BioNtech’s Earnings ESP is +6.10% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.93 is lower than the Most Accurate Estimate of $9.47 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks RankBioNTech has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here

Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.39% and a Zacks Rank #2.

ALLO’s stock has plunged 29.1% in the past year. ALLO beat earnings estimates in all the last four reported quarters. ALLO has an earnings surprise of 8.33%, on average.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.18% and a Zacks Rank #3.

ACAD’s stock has plunged 11.5% in the past year. ACAD beat earnings estimates in two of the last four reported quarters, missing the mark on two occasions. ACAD has a negative earnings surprise of 6.33%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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