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Plains All American (PAA) Up 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Plains All American Pipeline (PAA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 3.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Plains All American due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Plains All American Q4 Earnings & Sales Miss Estimates

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.  reported fourth-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings of 33 cents per unit, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 35 cents by 5.7%. The bottom line improved by 32% from the year-ago figure.

For the quarter under review, the partnership reported GAAP earnings of 30 cents per unit compared with 56 cents in the year-ago period.

In 2022, adjusted earnings per unit were $1.26, up 33% year over year from 95 cents reported in 2021.

Total Revenues

Total revenues of $12,952 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14,385 million by 9.9%. The top line also marginally lagged from the year-ago quarter’s revenue of $12,989 million.

In 2022, total revenues were $57,342 million, up 36.3% year over year from $42,078 million reported in 2021.

Highlights of the Release

For the quarter under review, Plains All American’s total costs and expenses were $12,989 million, up 4.8% year over year. The increase was primarily due to higher purchases and related costs and an increase in field operating costs.

Total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $659 million, up 16.8% from the year-ago period.

In 2022, Crude Oil pipeline tariff volume was 7,565 thousand barrels per day (Mbls/d), up 219% year-over-year.

Net interest expenses were $96 million, down 4% from the year-ago quarter. The firm reduced its long-term debt level by nearly $1.11 billion in 2022, which resulted in lower capital servicing costs.

Segmental Performance

The Crude Oil segment’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $504 million compared with $423 million in the year-ago quarter, up 19.2% year over year. The NGL Segment’s adjusted EBITDA was $151 million compared with $141 million in the year-ago quarter, up 7.1% year over year.

Financial Update

As of Dec 31, 2022, cash and cash equivalents were $401 million compared with $449 million as of Dec 31, 2021.

As of Dec 31, 2022, Plains All American had total long-term debt of $7,287 million compared with $8,398 million as of Dec 31, 2021.

As of the same date, its long-term debt-to-total book capitalization was 42%, down from 46% as of Dec 31, 2021.

Guidance

For 2023, Plains All American expects adjusted EBITDA in the range of $2,450-$2,550 million. The free cash flow for 2023 is expected to be $1,600 million, while free cash flow after distribution is expected to be $600 million.

Plains All American expects Crude pipeline volumes to average 8,570 Mbls/d in 2023. The firm plans to invest $625 million in 2023 to strengthen operations.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Plains All American has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision has been net zero. Notably, Plains All American has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Plains All American is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry. Over the past month, Enterprise Products Partners (EPD - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 0%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2022 more than a month ago.

Enterprise Products reported revenues of $13.65 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +20.1%. EPS of $0.65 for the same period compares with $0.52 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Enterprise Products is expected to post earnings of $0.60 per share, indicating no change from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

Enterprise Products has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.


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