It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Kinross Gold (KGC Quick QuoteKGC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Kinross Gold due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Kinross’  Earnings and Sales Surpass Estimates in Q4

Kinross recorded a loss of $106 million or 8 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2022 compared with a loss of $66.2 million or 5 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Kinross reported adjusted earnings of 9 cents per share in the fourth quarter, up from the prior year’s figure of 2 cents. It beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 7 cents.  

Revenues climbed by 75% year over year to $1,076.2 million in the fourth quarter. It topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $962.8 million. 

Operational Performance

The company produced 595,683 gold equivalent ounces from continuing operations in the reported quarter, up 75% year over year.

Average realized gold prices were $1,731 per ounce in the quarter, down 3.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

The production cost of sales per gold equivalent ounce was $848, down 4.6% from the prior-year quarter. All-in sustaining cost per gold equivalent ounce sold fell roughly 17% year over year to $1,236.

Margin per gold equivalent ounce sold was $883 in the quarter, down from the prior quarter’s $908.

FY22 Results

Earnings, as adjusted, for full-year 2022 were 22 cents per share compared with 17 cents a year ago. Net sales climbed 33% to $3,455.1 million.

Financials

Cash and cash equivalents were $418.1 million at the end of the reported quarter, down around 21% year over year. Long-term debt was $2,556.9 million at the end of the quarter, up about 61%.

Operating cash flow increased approximately 220% year over year in the fourth quarter to $474.3 million.

Outlook

For 2023, Kinross expects production to be 2.1 million gold equivalent ounces (+/- 5%). For the first quarter, the company expects production to be lower than the rest of the year due to shutdowns at Tasiast related to the 24K project and at La Coipa. Seasonal impacts of mining at Paracatu are also expected to slow down production in the first quarter.

The company expects production cost of sales of $970 per gold equivalent ounce (+/- 5%) for the year, factoring in inflation, including higher labor and consumables costs. The company expects all-in sustaining cost per gold equivalent ounce of $1,320 for 2023.

Capital expenditures are predicted at around $1 billion (+/- 5%) for this year.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -29.52% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Kinross Gold has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Kinross Gold has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.