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Why Is Viper Energy (VNOM) Down 6.5% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Viper Energy Partners (VNOM - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 6.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Viper Energy due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Viper Energy Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates

Viper Energy Partners reported fourth-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per unit of 28 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 27 cents. The bottom line, however, declined from the year-ago quarter’s profit of 36 cents per share.

The partnership, with mineral interests in North America oil and gas resources, generated an operating income of $204 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $182 million. The top line increased from the year-ago quarter’s $166 million.

Viper Energy’s better-than-expected quarterly results were aided by higher oil-equivalent production and prices.

Production

The resources, wherein the partnership has mineral interests, produced 3,214 thousand oil-equivalent barrels (MBoe) in the December quarter of 2022, up from 2,885 MBoe a year ago. Of the total volume, oil contributed 57.2%. The production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids increased from the prior-year quarter.

Realized Prices

Overall average realized price per barrel of oil equivalent was recorded at $57.92 compared with $56.82  in fourth-quarter 2021. Average realized oil prices in the quarter under review were $83.30 per barrel, up from $74.00 a year ago. The price of natural gas was $3.74 per thousand cubic feet, down from $4.82 in the year-ago quarter. The same for natural gas liquids was $25.65 a barrel, down from $36.65.

Costs & Expenses

In fourth-quarter 2022, total expenses amounted to $44.6 million compared with $39.6 million in the prior-year quarter. On a per barrel of oil equivalent (Boe) basis, total operating expenses were recorded at $4.07 compared with $3.65 in the year-ago quarter.

Cash Flow

Net cash provided by operating activities was recorded at $186.6 million, up from $107.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec 31, 2022, Viper Energy’s cash and cash equivalents were $18.2 million. It reported net long-term debt of $576.9 million.

Guidance

For the first half of this year, Viper Energy expects its production in the range of 34,000 to 35,750 Boe/d. For 2023, Viper Energy is projecting its production in the band of 34,500 to 38,000 Boe/d.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -18.36% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Viper Energy has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Viper Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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