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Univar (UNVR) Up 3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Univar . Shares have added about 3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Univar due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Univar’s Q4 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates

Univar reported profits of $71.6 million or 44 cents per share in the fourth- quarter of 2022, down from $156.8 million or 91 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted earnings in the reported quarter were 47 cents per share, down 22% from 60 cents in the year-ago quarter. It missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents.

The company’s revenues were $2,592.6 million in the quarter, up 3.8% year over year. The top line lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,798.1 million. The upside in sales can be attributed to the company’s pricing discipline, partly offset by lower demand resulting from consumer destocking.

Segment Highlights

Revenues from the USA division rose 5.3% year over year to $1,698.9 million in the quarter. The upside was primarily driven by pricing discipline, which was mitigated by consumer destocking.

The EMEA segment reported $468.8 million in revenues, down 2.5% year over year. The upside in external sales was supported by pricing discipline, offset by weak demand.

Revenues from the Canada segment went up 3.9% year over year to $255 million. The upside was led by pricing discipline offset by weak demand due to consumer destocking.

Revenues from the LATAM unit rose 7.7% to $169.9 million, driven mainly by pricing discipline and the Sweetmix acquisition, which mitigated the impact of consumer destocking that led to lower demand.

FY22 Results

Earnings, as adjusted, in the full-year 2022 were $3.40 per share compared with $2.22 a year ago. Net sales climbed 20.3% to $11,475.3 million.

Financials

Univar ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $385.3 million, up 53.2% year over year. Long-term debt was $2,426.9 million, up 9.1%.

Net cash provided by operating activities rose to $546.4 million in 2022 from $290.3 million in the prior-year quarter. The company repurchased shares worth more than $400 million in 2022.

Outlook

The company expects adjusted EBITDA for first-quarter 2023 to be $200-$220 million. For 2023, adjusted EBITDA is forecast in the band of $900-$930 million. The guidance reflects strong operational execution, market share growth, cost management and savings seeding from its Value Capture Program. The company also sees net free cash flow for 2023 to be in the range of $425-$445 million.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -21.15% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Univar has a great Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Univar has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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