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Mosaic (MOS) Down 16.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 16.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Mosaic’s Q4 Earnings Miss, Revenues Beat Estimates

Mosaic reported profit amounting to $523.2 million or $1.52 per share in fourth-quarter 2022, down from $664.8 million or $1.76 per share reported in the prior-year quarter.

The company’s adjusted earnings amounted to $1.74, down 11% year over year from $1.95 per share. It lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.08.

Net sales rose roughly 17% year over year to $4,481.3 million in the quarter. It surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,307 million. Sales were driven by higher pricing across the segments, which partially offset lower volumes in Potash and Phosphate.

Segmental Highlights

Net sales in the Potash segment were around $1,136 million in the quarter, up around 27% from the prior-year quarter. Sales volumes in the segment were 1.9 million tons, down 9.5% year over year. The segment’s gross margin per ton increased to $289 from $224 in the year-ago quarter.

The Phosphate division’s net sales were down around 11% year over year to $1,310 million in the fourth quarter. Sales volumes in the segment fell around 11% year over year in the quarter to 1.6 million tons. Gross margin per ton in the quarter was $148, down from $254 in the year-ago quarter.

Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were around $1,910 million in the quarter, up around 24% year over year. Sales volume in the quarter rose around 9% year over year to 2.5 million tons. The gross margin per ton in the quarter was $11, down from $95 a year ago.

2022 Results

Earnings for 2022 were $10.06 per share compared with $4.27 a year ago. Net sales rose 55% year over year to $19,125.2 million.


At the end of 2022, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $735.4 million, down around 4% year over year. Long-term debt declined around 29% year over year to $2,411.9 million.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $955.7 million in the reported quarter, up around 122% year over year.


The company expects strong agricultural commodity pricing trends to drive the recovery of demand in the fertilizers market in 2023. The company also noted that the demand for grains and oilseeds is high. Higher biofuel consumption, crop production and concerns over food security are expected to continue to drive elevated crop prices through this year and potentially beyond, resulting in higher global fertilizer demand during the year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -35.92% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Mosaic has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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