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Recession Watch: Will it be in 2023, 2024 or Never?

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  • (1:00) - Are We Heading Into A Recession Or Not?
  • (11:45) - What Can The Housing Industry Tell Us About The Current Economy?
  • (16:30) - What Should Investors Expect From The Regional Banks After The Silicon Valley Bank Collapse?
  • (21:20) - Navigating The Current Market: Where Should You Be Investing?
  • (27:00) - What Industries Should You Keep On Your Watchlist Right Now?
  • (32:50) - Episode Roundup: V, JPM, BAC, C, WFC, AIRR


Welcome to Episode #354 of the Zacks Market Edge Podcast.

Every week, host and Zacks stock strategist, Tracey Ryniec, will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds and ETFs and how it impacts your life.

This week, Tracey is joined by John Blank, Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and an economist, to discuss their favorite topic: is the United States in a recession? And if not, when will it be?

And where should you invest, if at all, this year?

Employment Data Tells the Story

There have been two BLS job reports so far in 2023, January and February. There were thousands of jobs created in both months. Job growth has not gone negative, which is usually a sign of a recession.

Additionally, the weekly jobless claims data, which is the people in each state filing new jobless claims for unemployment, remains near 50-year lows. The 4-week moving average is just 196,000. Usually, claims over 300,000 indicate the economy is softening.

Looking at the Financials

1.      Visa Inc. (V - Free Report)

Visa is one of the few big caps where analysts believe earnings will rise in fiscal 2023. The fiscal 2023 Zacks Consensus Estimate is calling for $8.43 which is up 12.4% from last year when Visa made $7.50.

Shares of Visa are up 6.1% year-to-date but they’ve been trading in a narrow trading range the last 2 years, with the shares up just 3.2% in that period.

Visa is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock.

Should Visa be on your short list?

2.      JPMorgan Chase (JPM - Free Report)

JPMorgan Chase is one of the “too big to fail” national banks. Analysts expect JPMorgan to grow earnings 6.5% in 2023 to $12.88 from $12.09 last year.

Shares of JPMorgan are down in 2023, but just 3.9%. It pays a dividend, yielding 3.1%.

JPMorgan is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Is this a buying opportunity in JPMorgan Chase?

3.      Bank of America (BAC - Free Report)

Bank of America shares have fallen 15.1% year-to-date. It’s now cheap, with a P/B ratio of just 0.9.

However, 2 analysts have cut 2023 earnings estimates in the last week and earnings are now expected to grow just 5.6% this year.

Bank of America pays a dividend, currently yielding 3.1%. It’s a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Should Bank of America be on your short list?

4.      Citigroup (C - Free Report)

Citigroup is the cheapest of the big banks, with a P/B ratio of just 0.5. Shares have fallen 20% in the last year but are flat for 2023.

Earnings are expected to fall 17.4% in 2023, however.

Citigroup has the highest dividend yield of the big 4 banks, with a current yield of 4.6%.

Should you consider Citigroup in 2023?

5.      Wells Fargo & Company (WFC - Free Report)

Wells Fargo shares have fallen 10% in 2023. Analysts had been bullish on Wells Fargo until the last week, when 2 estimates were cut for the full year.

However, analysts still expect earnings to grow 53% to $4.80 from $3.14 last year. Wells Fargo is cheap, with a P/B ratio of 0.9.

It pays a dividend currently yielding 3.2%.

Should Wells Fargo have a place on your watch list?

What else do you Need to Know About Investing Opportunities in 2023?    

Listen to this week’s podcast to find out.


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