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Will Poor Sales Volume Hurt Lockheed's (LMT) Q1 Earnings?

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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 18, before the opening bell.

The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 6.86% in the last four quarters. Lower sales volume from the majority of the company’s segments, along with lower segment FAS/CAS operating profit, is likely to have hurt LMT’s first-quarter performance.

Let's see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Aeronautics & Space to Post Unimpressive Sales

The Aeronautics segment, which primarily manufactures advanced, combat-proven jets, and contributes almost 40% to the company’s top line, is likely to deliver unimpressive results in the to-be-reported quarter.

Increased volume from classified programs is expected to have boosted the segment’s performance. However, lower F-35 production volume might have adversely impacted this business unit’s overall sales.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aeronautics unit’s first-quarter revenues stands at $6,196 million, indicating a 3.2% decline from the prior-year reported figure.

The Space business segment’s first-quarter results are likely to be affected by the 2021 renationalization of the AWE program. However, continued ramp-up in the next-generation interceptor program is expected to have benefited the unit to some extent.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Space business segment’s first-quarter revenues is $2,632 million, indicating a 2.9% decline from the prior-year reported figure.

Impact of MFC & RMS Performance

Lockheed Martin’s Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment provides critical missile defense support to the United States and foreign allies. Higher volume from tactical and strike missiles are expected to have boosted this unit’s first-quarter sales in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MFC’s revenues is currently pegged at $2,485 million, indicating a 1.3% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Lower C6ISR and Black Hawk volume at Sikorsky might have had some adverse impact on the Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) segment’s first-quarter performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the RMS segment’s first-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $3,549 million, indicating a 0.1% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Q1 Expectations

The anticipated sales declines in LMT’s three major segments are likely to have adversely impacted the company’s overall sales performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter revenues is $14.87 billion, indicating a 0.7% decrease from the year-ago reported number.
Such a deteriorating sales performance, along with lower segment FAS/CAS operating profit, is likely to have hurt LMT’s first-quarter earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the defense giant’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $6.08 per share, indicating a 5.6% decline from the prior-year period.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lockheed Martin this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here as you will see below.

LMT has an Earnings ESP of -0.81% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Below are three defense stocks that have the right combination for an earnings beat:

Spirit AeroSystems (SPR - Free Report) : The company is expected to release its first-quarter results soon. SPR has an Earnings ESP of +16.58% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Spirit AeroSystems delivered a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 157.65%. The bottom-line estimate for SPR is pegged at a loss of 31 cents for first quarter, indicating a decline from the prior-year quarter’s earnings of 3 cents per share.

Textron (TXT - Free Report) : The company is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on Apr 27. TXT has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Textron delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 13.91%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXT’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $95 cents, indicating an 8% increase from the prior-year quarter.

Virgin Galactic (SPCE - Free Report) is expected to report first-quarter results soon. SPCE has an Earnings ESP of +8.73% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Virgin Galactic delivered a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 14.60%.The bottom-line estimate for SPCE is pegged at a loss of 50 cents for first quarter, indicating a  deterioration from the prior-year quarter’s loss of 36 cents per share.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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