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Papa John's (PZZA) Near-Term Prospects Appear Disappointing
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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) has declined sharply despite a decent gain witnessed by the restaurant industry in the past year. The stock has lost 23.9% against the industry’s gain of 14.8%. Primarily, the downfall can be attributed to inflationary pressures and staffing challenges. Deteriorating economic and business conditions in United Kingdom added to the downside.
PZZA’s near-term prospect also looks gloomy. Our model estimates first-quarter 2023 revenues to decline 2.7% year over year to $527.9 million. We expect bottom line to decline sharply owing to higher expenses. Per our model, total costs are likely to increase 5.8% whereas adjusted earnings are likely to decrease 38.8% to 58 cents per share.
Let’s delve deeper into the factors likely to damage the company’s performance.
Factors Hurting Performance
Papa John's performance has been affected by higher inflationary pressures in commodity and labor costs, softening economic conditions (in U.K.), rising interest rates and looming European energy crisis.
During fourth-quarter fiscal 2022, Papa John's international comps were negatively impacted by challenges in U.K. market. Adverse macroeconomic conditions resulted in negative comparable sales and a challenging operating environment for its franchisees. During the quarter, comps at international restaurants were down 3.4% year over year against growth of 2.4% reported in the prior-year quarter.
Given the macroeconomic challenges and uncertainty in international markets, the company anticipates international comp sales to remain under pressure throughout 2023.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company is continuously shouldering increased expenses, which are detrimental to its margin. It has been facing significant supply-chain challenges and inflation across most commodities and categories. This resulted in cost pressure in fourth-quarter fiscal 2022, including costs related to strategic staffing initiatives.
PZZA’s food basket costs were up 13% year over year. Also, it reported elevated labor costs. Although the company resorts to strategic price increases to mitigate the impact of inflationary costs, it expects inflationary pressures to persist in the near term.
High debt remains a concern for Papa John's. Long-term debt (less current portion) at the end of the fiscal fourth quarter came in at $597.1 million compared with $548.8 million reported in the previous quarter. PZZA ended the fiscal fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $47.4 million compared with $36.6 million reported in the previous quarter.
Chuy’s Holdings has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.1%, on average. The stock has gained 35% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHUY’s 2023 sales and EPS suggests growth of 10.8% and 19%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.
Arcos Dorados has a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.8%. Shares of the company have declined 1.3% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARCO’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates increases of 8% and 11.4%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.
Bloomin' Brands has a long-term earnings growth rate of 12.3%. The stock has risen 16.1% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLMN’s 2024 sales and EPS suggests improvements of 2.4% and 5.5%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.
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Papa John's (PZZA) Near-Term Prospects Appear Disappointing
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA - Free Report) has declined sharply despite a decent gain witnessed by the restaurant industry in the past year. The stock has lost 23.9% against the industry’s gain of 14.8%. Primarily, the downfall can be attributed to inflationary pressures and staffing challenges. Deteriorating economic and business conditions in United Kingdom added to the downside.
PZZA’s near-term prospect also looks gloomy. Our model estimates first-quarter 2023 revenues to decline 2.7% year over year to $527.9 million. We expect bottom line to decline sharply owing to higher expenses. Per our model, total costs are likely to increase 5.8% whereas adjusted earnings are likely to decrease 38.8% to 58 cents per share.
Let’s delve deeper into the factors likely to damage the company’s performance.
Factors Hurting Performance
Papa John's performance has been affected by higher inflationary pressures in commodity and labor costs, softening economic conditions (in U.K.), rising interest rates and looming European energy crisis.
During fourth-quarter fiscal 2022, Papa John's international comps were negatively impacted by challenges in U.K. market. Adverse macroeconomic conditions resulted in negative comparable sales and a challenging operating environment for its franchisees. During the quarter, comps at international restaurants were down 3.4% year over year against growth of 2.4% reported in the prior-year quarter.
Given the macroeconomic challenges and uncertainty in international markets, the company anticipates international comp sales to remain under pressure throughout 2023.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company is continuously shouldering increased expenses, which are detrimental to its margin. It has been facing significant supply-chain challenges and inflation across most commodities and categories. This resulted in cost pressure in fourth-quarter fiscal 2022, including costs related to strategic staffing initiatives.
PZZA’s food basket costs were up 13% year over year. Also, it reported elevated labor costs. Although the company resorts to strategic price increases to mitigate the impact of inflationary costs, it expects inflationary pressures to persist in the near term.
High debt remains a concern for Papa John's. Long-term debt (less current portion) at the end of the fiscal fourth quarter came in at $597.1 million compared with $548.8 million reported in the previous quarter. PZZA ended the fiscal fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $47.4 million compared with $36.6 million reported in the previous quarter.
Key Picks
Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector are Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (CHUY - Free Report) , Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO - Free Report) and Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN - Free Report) , each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Chuy’s Holdings has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 19.1%, on average. The stock has gained 35% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHUY’s 2023 sales and EPS suggests growth of 10.8% and 19%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.
Arcos Dorados has a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.8%. Shares of the company have declined 1.3% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARCO’s 2024 sales and EPS indicates increases of 8% and 11.4%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.
Bloomin' Brands has a long-term earnings growth rate of 12.3%. The stock has risen 16.1% in the past year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLMN’s 2024 sales and EPS suggests improvements of 2.4% and 5.5%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.