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Is a Beat in Store for United Parcel's (UPS) Q1 Earnings?
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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 25, before market open.
The company has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 4.36%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for United Parcel this earnings season.
Q1 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for United Parcel’s first-quarter 2023 revenues and our estimate for the same are both pegged at $22.94 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 5.92% .
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter U.S. Domestic Package revenues is pegged at $14,836 million, indicating a 1.9% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter International Package revenues is pegged at $4,544 million, indicating a 6.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure. Reduction in average daily volume due to lower domestic volume and softness in China trade lanes are expected to have weighed on segmental revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter Supply Chain and Freight revenues is pegged at $3,397 million, indicating a 22.4% decline from the year-ago reported figure. The downfall is anticipated to have resulted from volume and market rate declines in air and ocean freight forwarding.
On the flip side, high fuel costs are likely to have dented UPS’ bottom-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Rising capital expenditure further adds to its woes. Moreover, a decline in shipping volumes due to weakening demand is likely to have been concerning. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS’s first-quarter 2023 earnings has been revised downward by 19.1% in the past 90 days.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for United Parcel this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
United Parcel has an Earnings ESP of +5.02% and a Zacks Rank #3.
United Parcel Service, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
United Parcel’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings of $3.62 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.58 and improved 0.8% year over year. Revenues of $27,033 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $27,946.6 million and decreased 2.7% year over year.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat their first-quarter 2023 earnings.
Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.66% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. CPA will release results on May 10.
Copa Holdings has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the first quarter. CPA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.35%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPA’s first-quarter earnings has improved 6.1% over the past 60 days.
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +75.82% and a Zacks Rank #2. AAL will release results on Apr 27.
AAL has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the first quarter. AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.79%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter earnings has improved more than 100% over the past 60 days.
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% and a Zacks Rank #3. CNI will release results on Apr 24.
CNI has an expected earnings growth rate of 18.3% for the first quarter. CNI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.46%, on average.
CNI has a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.72%.
Image: Bigstock
Is a Beat in Store for United Parcel's (UPS) Q1 Earnings?
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 25, before market open.
The company has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 4.36%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for United Parcel this earnings season.
Q1 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for United Parcel’s first-quarter 2023 revenues and our estimate for the same are both pegged at $22.94 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 5.92% .
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter U.S. Domestic Package revenues is pegged at $14,836 million, indicating a 1.9% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter International Package revenues is pegged at $4,544 million, indicating a 6.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure. Reduction in average daily volume due to lower domestic volume and softness in China trade lanes are expected to have weighed on segmental revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter Supply Chain and Freight revenues is pegged at $3,397 million, indicating a 22.4% decline from the year-ago reported figure. The downfall is anticipated to have resulted from volume and market rate declines in air and ocean freight forwarding.
On the flip side, high fuel costs are likely to have dented UPS’ bottom-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Rising capital expenditure further adds to its woes. Moreover, a decline in shipping volumes due to weakening demand is likely to have been concerning. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS’s first-quarter 2023 earnings has been revised downward by 19.1% in the past 90 days.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for United Parcel this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
United Parcel has an Earnings ESP of +5.02% and a Zacks Rank #3.
United Parcel Service, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
United Parcel Service, Inc. price-eps-surprise | United Parcel Service, Inc. Quote
Highlights of Q4
United Parcel’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings of $3.62 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.58 and improved 0.8% year over year. Revenues of $27,033 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $27,946.6 million and decreased 2.7% year over year.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat their first-quarter 2023 earnings.
Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.66% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. CPA will release results on May 10.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Copa Holdings has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the first quarter. CPA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.35%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPA’s first-quarter earnings has improved 6.1% over the past 60 days.
American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +75.82% and a Zacks Rank #2. AAL will release results on Apr 27.
AAL has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for the first quarter. AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.79%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter earnings has improved more than 100% over the past 60 days.
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% and a Zacks Rank #3. CNI will release results on Apr 24.
CNI has an expected earnings growth rate of 18.3% for the first quarter. CNI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.46%, on average.
CNI has a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.72%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.