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Kimco (KIM) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 27 before the opening bell. While the company’s quarterly results are likely to display year-over-year revenue growth, funds from operations (FFO) per share are expected to have been on par with the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

In the last reported quarter, this Jericho, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered a negative surprise of 2.56% in terms of FFO per share. The quarterly results reflected year-over-year top-line growth. However, a rise in interest expenses acted as a dampener.

Over the preceding four quarters, Kimco’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed the same once, the average beat being 3.31%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Kimco Realty Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote

Factors at Play

Per a Cushman & Wakefield (CWK - Free Report) report, the United States retail real estate market remained healthy in first-quarter 2023, with resilient demand and limited new supply driving shopping center vacancy lower.  

On a year-over-year basis, the national vacancy fell 60 basis points to 5.6% in the first quarter, while the asking rents for shopping centers improved 4.7% to $23.16 per square foot.

Moreover, net absorption in the quarter totaled 2.5 million square feet (msf) nationally, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive net absorption. Further, of the 81 markets tracked by Cushman & Wakefield, 45 witnessed positive net absorption.

Kimco’s well-located and largely grocery-anchored portfolio, which offers essential goods and services, is anticipated to have benefited from the above-mentioned factors.

Amid growing consumers’ preference for in-person shopping experiences following the pandemic downtime, demand for KIM’s properties is likely to have remained healthy, aiding occupancy levels and leasing activity in the quarter.  

Moreover, Kimco’s significant diversification with respect to geography and tenants is expected to have aided stable cashflows.

Kimco has been focusing on its mixed-use assets clustered in strong economic metropolitan statistical areas that serve the last mile. This segment is gaining from the recovery in the apartment and retail sectors. Through a selected collection of mixed-use projects, redevelopments and active investment management, KIM has been targeting to increase its net asset value, which is likely to have paid off well in the first quarter.

The company’s top line is expected to have improved on the back of these tailwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM’s quarterly revenues stands at $440.2 million, implying 3.04% growth from the prior-year reported number. We expect the same to be $432.2 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the rental property is currently pegged at $434.7 million, up from $422.7 million in the year-ago period. Our estimate for the same stands at $427.9 million.

Kimco’s robust balance sheet position is likely to have supported its strategic expansions to enhance its portfolio quality.

Further, in February, Kimco’s subsidiary Kimco Realty OP, LLC (“Kimco OP”) closed a new $2 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with commitments from 20 lending institutions. This replaced the company’s existing $2 billion unsecured revolving credit facility. The move enhanced the company’s liquidity position.

However, the economic slowdown amid macroeconomic uncertainty and higher e-commerce adoption might have cast a pall on Kimco’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Also, rising interest rates might have raised expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM’s first-quarter FFO per share has been unchanged at 39 cents over the past two months. Moreover, the figure is likely to have remained on par with the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Earnings Whisper

Our proven model predicts a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Kimco this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — increases the odds of a beat. This is the case here.

Earnings ESP: Kimco has an Earnings ESP of +1.42%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Kimco currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other stocks that are worth considering from the REIT sector, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to deliver a surprise this reporting cycle:

Simon Property Group (SPG - Free Report) is slated to report quarterly numbers on May 2. SPG has an Earnings ESP of +1.23% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT - Free Report) is scheduled to report quarterly figures on May 4. FRT has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 currently.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents FFO — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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