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Assertio (ASRT) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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We expect investors to focus on the sales performance of Assertio's (ASRT - Free Report) recently acquired neurology medicine, Sympazan, and an anti-inflammatory drug, Indocie, when it reports its first-quarter results.

ASRT's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 179.78%. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 482.61% in the last reported quarter.

Assertio Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Assertio Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Assertio Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Assertio Holdings, Inc. Quote

In the year-to-date period, shares of Assertio have risen 43.5% against the industry's 0.4% decline.

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Let's see how things might have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Consider

ASRT's commercial portfolio includes a total of eight products for neurology, rheumatology, and pain and inflammation.

The company’s first-quarter revenues are likely to have been driven by its key products, Indocin, Sympazan and Otrexup. 

Sympazan, acquired from Aquestive Therapeutics (AQST - Free Report) in October last year, recorded encouraging first sales in the fourth quarter of 2022. AQST received an upfront payment of $9 million and a milestone payment of $6 million. It is also entitled to receive cash royalties every quarter on the acquired product's sales.

Sympazan’s initial sales surpassed the company's estimates. This trend is expected to have continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. 

The digital campaigns for product promotion, including developing and maintaining relationships with customers, physicians, payors and other constituencies, have been running well.

Two other anti-inflammatory products of Assertio, Cambia and Zipsor, have been facing generic competition. Certain generic companies that had entered into settlement agreements in January are expected to launch a generic version of Cambia. An update is expected regarding the same on the company’s first-quarter earnings call.

ASRT anticipates first-quarter revenues in the range of $36-$38 million, reflecting typical seasonality and the loss of Cambia’s exclusivity.

Last year, Assertio faced supply chain-related challenges with Otrexup for patients with severe active rheumatoid arthritis. The supply network issues were solved, which must have contributed to the company’s growth prospects in the first quarter.

Investors can also expect an update on Assertio's business development plans on mergers and acquisition for future growth opportunities. The company plans to make some substantial investments and improvements in its commercial platform this year.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Assertio this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Assertio has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate and Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter earnings are pegged at 13 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Assertio has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks worth considering from the overall healthcare space, as these have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Celularity (CELU - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.63% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Celularity’s shares have plunged 46.6% in the year-to-date period. CELU’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last three quarters and missed the mark in one. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 38.13%.

Reata Pharmaceuticals has an Earnings ESP of +2.82% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Reata Pharmaceuticals’ shares have surged 163.1% in the year-to-date period. Reata’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last three quarters and missed the mark on one occasion. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 3.98%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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