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What's in Store for Graphic Packaging (GPK) in Q1 Earnings?

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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2023 results before the opening bell on May 2.

Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total sales is pegged at $2.39 billion, suggesting growth of 6.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for the company’s earnings per share is pinned at 62 cents, indicating a year-over-year increase of 29%. The estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days.

Q4 Performance

Graphic Packaging’s revenues and earnings increased year over year in the fourth quarter of 2022. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on both counts. GPK has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.2%, on average.

Factors at Play

GPK’s focus on innovation in fiber-based consumer packaging solutions has been boosting demand and drove a third consecutive year of net organic sales growth in 2022, which was above the high end of the company’s targeted range. Its acquisition in Europe has been integrated and is providing growth opportunities in new consumer markets while meeting financial and synergy expectations.

The state-of-the-art CRB machine in Kalamazoo, MI has successfully ramped production and is on track to achieve an expected $130 million in incremental, annual EBITDA. All these factors along with favorable volume mix and price realization are likely to have boosted the company’s earnings in the first quarter of 2023. However, elevated input and labor costs are likely to have dented these gains somewhat in the quarter. 

What the Zacks Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Graphic Packaging this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: GPK has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Price Performance

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Graphic Packaging’s shares have declined 18.3% in the past year against the industry’s 1.8% fall.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some Industrial Products stocks, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases.

Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2023 results on May 3. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.32% and currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1 .  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at 52 cents per share. This suggests year-over-year growth of 6.1%.

The consensus estimate for IR’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.5 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 10.7%. IR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.5%, on average.

A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS - Free Report) is set to release its first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 27. AOS currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.78% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at 77 cents per share, suggesting no year-over-year change.

The consensus mark for AOS’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $913 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 6.5%. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.2%, on average.

Illinois Tool Works (ITW - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2023 results on May 2. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2023 earnings is pegged at $2.19 per share. This suggests year-over-year growth of 3.8%

The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4 billion, indicating growth of 0.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported level. ITW has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.9%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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