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Will Pfizer (PFE) Beat Expectations This Earnings Season?
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We expect Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2023 results on May 2 before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 10.68%.
The drug giant’s performance has been mixed with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.48% on average.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 19.6% in the past year against an increase of 11.2% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Note
Pfizer’s revenues are expected to have declined in the first quarter of 2023 due to steep expected declines in revenues from its COVID-19 products on lower demand.
Among COVID products, Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from BioNTech for Comirnaty is $3.51 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $2.57 billion.
Excluding revenues from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, Pfizer revenues are expected to have risen, driven by key brands like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, Eliquis and Prevnar family of vaccines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis alliance revenues, product sales of Prevnar family of vaccines and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.93 billion, $1.45 billion and $711 million, respectively.
Our model estimates Eliquis alliance revenues to be $1.91 billion, product sales of Prevnar family of vaccines to bw $1.396 billion and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax sales to be $674.5 million.
However, sales of key medicine, Ibrance are likely to have declined due to planned price decreases in some international developed markets and a continued increase in the proportion of patients accessing Ibrance through the U.S. Patient Assistance Program (which provides Ibrance free of charge to certain low-income patients). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ibrance is $1.20 billion, while our estimate is $1.22 billion.
Sales of some key drugs like Xeljanz and Enbrel (in international markets) are likely to have declined in the first quarter, continuing the trend of the past few quarters. Sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt due to biosimilar competition. Lower prices and prescription volumes globally as a result of a shift in doctors’ prescribing patterns away from JAK inhibitors, following label warnings, are likely to have hurt Xeljanz’s sales in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xeljanz and Enbrel is pegged at $333 million and $242 million, respectively, while our estimate stands at $363 million and $239.5 million, respectively.
Newly acquired products, including Nurtec ODT/Vydura for migraine and Oxbryta for sickle cell disease are expected to have contributed to the top line in the quarter.
Lower revenues from COVID products coupled with higher spending for near-term launches and late-stage pipeline candidates are expected to have hurt profits.
Key Event in Q1
In March, Pfizer offered to buy cancer drugmaker, Seagen for $229 per share in cash, which adds up to a total enterprise value of approximately $43 billion.
Seagen’s acquisition is expected to strengthen Pfizer’s portfolio of cancer drugs by adding a class of antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). Seagen currently markets four cancer drugs — Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak. Pfizer expects Seagen to contribute more than $10 billion in risk-adjusted revenues in 2030. The Pfizer/Seagen transaction is expected to close in late 2023 or early 2024, pending approval by Seagen shareholders and regulatory authorities.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Pfizer in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP is +3.69% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.03 is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.00. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3
Another Stock to Consider
Another large drug/biotech stock that has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.83% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Moderna’s stock has declined 6.5% in the past year. Moderna topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in two. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.69%, on average. MRNA is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on May 4.
Image: Bigstock
Will Pfizer (PFE) Beat Expectations This Earnings Season?
We expect Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2023 results on May 2 before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 10.68%.
The drug giant’s performance has been mixed with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.48% on average.
Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Pfizer Inc. price-eps-surprise | Pfizer Inc. Quote
Pfizer’s stock has declined 19.6% in the past year against an increase of 11.2% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Note
Pfizer’s revenues are expected to have declined in the first quarter of 2023 due to steep expected declines in revenues from its COVID-19 products on lower demand.
Among COVID products, Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from BioNTech for Comirnaty is $3.51 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $2.57 billion.
Excluding revenues from Comirnaty and Paxlovid, Pfizer revenues are expected to have risen, driven by key brands like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, Eliquis and Prevnar family of vaccines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis alliance revenues, product sales of Prevnar family of vaccines and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.93 billion, $1.45 billion and $711 million, respectively.
Our model estimates Eliquis alliance revenues to be $1.91 billion, product sales of Prevnar family of vaccines to bw $1.396 billion and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax sales to be $674.5 million.
However, sales of key medicine, Ibrance are likely to have declined due to planned price decreases in some international developed markets and a continued increase in the proportion of patients accessing Ibrance through the U.S. Patient Assistance Program (which provides Ibrance free of charge to certain low-income patients). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ibrance is $1.20 billion, while our estimate is $1.22 billion.
Sales of some key drugs like Xeljanz and Enbrel (in international markets) are likely to have declined in the first quarter, continuing the trend of the past few quarters. Sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt due to biosimilar competition. Lower prices and prescription volumes globally as a result of a shift in doctors’ prescribing patterns away from JAK inhibitors, following label warnings, are likely to have hurt Xeljanz’s sales in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xeljanz and Enbrel is pegged at $333 million and $242 million, respectively, while our estimate stands at $363 million and $239.5 million, respectively.
Newly acquired products, including Nurtec ODT/Vydura for migraine and Oxbryta for sickle cell disease are expected to have contributed to the top line in the quarter.
Lower revenues from COVID products coupled with higher spending for near-term launches and late-stage pipeline candidates are expected to have hurt profits.
Key Event in Q1
In March, Pfizer offered to buy cancer drugmaker, Seagen for $229 per share in cash, which adds up to a total enterprise value of approximately $43 billion.
Seagen’s acquisition is expected to strengthen Pfizer’s portfolio of cancer drugs by adding a class of antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). Seagen currently markets four cancer drugs — Adcetris, Padcev, Tukysa and Tivdak. Pfizer expects Seagen to contribute more than $10 billion in risk-adjusted revenues in 2030. The Pfizer/Seagen transaction is expected to close in late 2023 or early 2024, pending approval by Seagen shareholders and regulatory authorities.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Pfizer in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP is +3.69% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.03 is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.00. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3
Another Stock to Consider
Another large drug/biotech stock that has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.83% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Moderna’s stock has declined 6.5% in the past year. Moderna topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in two. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.69%, on average. MRNA is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on May 4.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.