In the Global Week Ahead, the latest U.S. and Chinese consumer price inflation (CPI) data and a Bank of England (BoE) policy rate decision are among the highlights.

Fresh short selling of U.S. regional bank shares, and debt ceiling woes in Washington DC suggest recent stability in world financial markets shall be put to the test in May.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—

(1) Sell in May and Go Away?

Conventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year.

"Sell in May and Go Away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October. Over the last 50 years, the S&P500 has gained an average of 4.8% between November and April, and just 1.2% between May and October, according to Reuters’ calculations.

However, this pattern fades over a shorter time-frame.

Over the last 20 years, the out-performance of November-April over May-October narrows to 1%. Over 10 years, November-April has underperformed May-October by 1 percentage point and over the last five years, it's underperformed by 3 percentage points. It might be time to find words that rhyme with “November.”

(2) On Wednesday, U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) Data for April

Any cooling down in Wednesday's April U.S. inflation data should give investors comfort that the Federal Reserve is done with tightening after more than a year of dramatic rate increases to contain price pressures.

After all, the Fed has just signaled a pause after delivering a 10th straight rate increase.

Economists polled by Reuters expect a 0.4% rise in consumer prices. A sharper-than-expected slowdown could vindicate those betting on rate cuts later this year, giving a further tailwind to risk assets — including an equity rally that has seen the S&P 500 gain 5.8% year-to-date.

A strong reading, on the other hand, would support the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and feed into market fears over stagflation — a mix of high inflation and low growth that is detrimental to risk assets.

(3) On Tuesday, Traders Get Latest Look at Mainland China Macro

A raft of Chinese data will likely offer a reality check on March's upside surprises.

April trade figures on Tuesday are likely to show a cooling of March's export surge. The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday.

Together with credit data – seen chugging along without being outstanding – it’s a complicated picture for investors and the People’s Bank of China to navigate. Indeed, news that China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April has raised pressure on policymakers to boost an economy struggling for a post-COVID lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness.

And flows figures suggest foreign money is staying away, for now.

(4) Coronation of King Charles to Lift U.K. Economy?

King Charles' coronation may provide a temporary bump for UK businesses with households expected to buy extra groceries as well as coronation memorabilia for an extended weekend.

Investors are more focused on the economy stagnating, with latest UK GDP data out on May 12th.

A day earlier, the Bank of England is likely to lift interest rates again to battle inflation -- even as rising mortgage costs increase financial stability risks.

At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Energy prices are likely to stop soaring this summer, helping annual inflation comparisons. But lengthy health service waiting lists causing long-term sickness have exacerbated a worker shortage linked to Brexit, keeping wage rises high.

Money markets price a more than 70% chance of the BoE raising its main rate to 4.5% on May 11 and taking it to 5% by year-end.

(5) G7 Finance Ministers Meet in Japan

Bulging debt burdens and distress woes in emerging markets are high on the agenda when finance ministers and central bankers from G7 advanced countries meet in the Japanese city of Niigata May 11-13. The group has invited a number of policy makers from emerging economies such as India, Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore and Brazil to attend an outreach meeting.

But that's not the only burning issue for the gathering under the Japanese presidency that will also look to address spillover effects of Russia's war against Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow as well as global inflation and supply chain pressures.

Financial stability could also become a key topic as tremors from a fresh flare up in U.S. banks ripple across markets after First Republic Bank became the third lender to collapse since February.

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Next are three large-cap stocks with Zacks rating of A or B for growth.

(1) Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG Quick QuoteCMG - Free Report) : This is a $2,027 stock. You read that right. It is found in the Retail-Restaurants industry.

A Delaware corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, together with its subsidiaries operates quick-casual and fresh Mexican food restaurant chains.

It has a market cap of $54.1B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

The company was founded in 1993 by Steve Ells who started with a single restaurant in Denver, CO. The company offers a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads.

Chipotle restaurants feature free-range, hormone-free pork, natural chicken and other meat products cooked through traditional methods and served in a unique atmosphere.

(2) Kuehne and Nagel International AG (KHNGY Quick QuoteKHNGY - Free Report) : This is a $65 stock in the Transportation-Services industry.

Kuehne + Nagel International AG is a logistics company headquartered in Schindellegi, Switzerland.

It has a market cap of $36.5B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of D.

It operates through six segments: Sea Freight, Air Freight, Road & Rail Logistics, Contract Logistics, Real Estate and Insurance Brokers.

The company is engaged in transportation services, including carrier services and contracts of carriage related to shipment; provision of services related to warehouse and distribution activities; brokerage services of insurance coverage, mainly marine liability; and covers activities mainly related to internal rent of facilities.

It operates in Europe, the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

(3) Rollins (ROL Quick QuoteROL - Free Report) : This is a $42 stock in the Business Services-Building Products, Maintenance industry.

Headquartered in Atlanta, GA, Rollins provides pest and termite control services to residential and commercial customers.

It has a market cap of $21.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

The company offers protection against termite damage, insects and rodents to homes and businesses, including food manufacturers, food service establishments, hotels, transportation companies and retailers.

Rollins also offers pest management and sanitation products and services to food and commodity industries; consulting services on border protection related to Australia's biosecurity program; and bird control and specialist services.

Note: With Zacks ratings of C, F and F for Value, you pay a stiff price for growth stocks.

Key Global Macro

On Monday, the Jibun Bank Japan services PMI for April came in higher than expected at 55.4, up 40 basis points month over month. Analyst had expected a read of 54.9.

On Tuesday, Mainland Chinese imports for April should be up +4.2% y/y and their exports should be up +10.5% y/y.

On Wednesday, Mainland Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for April should be out. The prior reading shows +4.9% y/y growth. Not bad, considering.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for April should be +4.4% y/y, after recording +5.0% y/y in the prior reading. Yes, that is a much lower broad reading. We shall see!

On Thursday, Mainland China’s CPI for April should be down -0.1% y/y. after recording a +0.7% prior reading.

The Bank of England (BoE) should get to 4.5% from 4.25% on their policy rate.

On Friday, the preliminary U of Michigan sentiment reading for May should be 63, after a prior reading of 63.5.

Conclusion

I conclude with Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian’s key earnings points:

(1) With a little over two-thirds of the Q1 earnings results in already, we can say with a fair degree of confidence that the overall earnings picture remains resilient and stable.

S&P500 companies are not only beating estimates, but also providing a reassuring-enough outlook for an otherwise uncertain macro environment.

(2) Through the morning session of May 3rd, we have seen Q1 results from 343 S&P 500 members, or 68.6% of the index’s membership.

Total Q1 earnings for these companies are down -1.6% on +4.1% higher revenues, with 77.6% beating EPS estimates and 74.3% beating revenue estimates.

(3) Earnings aren’t great, but they aren’t bad either, given the uncertain macro backdrop and weak sentiment.

Importantly, the tone and substance of management commentary continue to be favorable enough, which is helping keep negative estimate revisions in check.

(4) A significant driver of Q1 earnings outperformance has been better than expected margins, with net margins for the companies that have reported shrinking 74 basis points (bps) vs. 142 bps in the preceding period.

The Tech sector has really stood out regarding the stabilization of its margin outlook.

Warm Regards and Happy Trading!

John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist