Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Jabil?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Jabil (JBL Quick QuoteJBL - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.96 a share, just 30 days from its upcoming earnings release on June 15, 2023.

JBL has an Earnings ESP figure of +3.38%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.96 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.90. Jabil is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

JBL is part of a big group of Computer and Technology stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Paycom Software (PAYC Quick QuotePAYC - Free Report) as well.

Paycom Software is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 1, 2023. PAYC's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.60 a share 77 days from its next earnings release.

Paycom Software's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +1.28% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.58.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, JBL and PAYC could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>