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Copa Holdings (CPA) Up 5.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Copa Holdings (CPA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Copa Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Copa Holdings Beats on Q1 Earnings & Revenues

Copa Holdings’ first-quarter 2023 earnings (excluding 92 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.99 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.34 and rose more than 100% year over year. Revenues of $867.3 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $839.1 million and improved 51.7% year over year on the back of passenger revenues.

Passenger revenues (contributed 96.2% to the top line) increased 28.5% from first-quarter 2019 levels, owing to higher yields (up 20%). Cargo and mail revenues jumped 51.8% from first-quarter 2019 actuals to $23.25 million, owing to higher cargo volumes and yields. Other operating revenues improved 24% to $10 million, owing to revenues from non-air ConnectMiles partners.

Copa Holdings exited the first quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $242.31 million compared with $122.42 million at the end of December 2022. Total debt, including lease liabilities, was $1.7 billion, flat sequentially.

CPA ended the quarter with a consolidated fleet of 99 aircraft, which comprises 67 Boeing 737-800s, 22 Boeing 737 MAX 9s, nine Boeing 737-700s, and one Boeing 737-800 freighter. During the reported quarter, the carrier took delivery of two Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft.

For 2023, CPA expects consolidated capacity to grow in the 12-13% band from 2022 actuals. CPA expects the current-year operating margin to be between 22% and 24%. Load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) is expected to be approximately 85%. Fuel price per gallon of $2.85 is expected for the current year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 67.02% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Copa Holdings has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Copa Holdings has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Copa Holdings belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Another stock from the same industry, Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. (GOL - Free Report) , has gained 33.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2023.

Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. reported revenues of $947.13 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +53.7%. EPS of $0.13 for the same period compares with -$0.63 a year ago.

Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. is expected to post a loss of $0.13 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +69.8%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +64.2%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.

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