Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Adobe Systems?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Adobe Systems (ADBE Quick QuoteADBE - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.80 a share, just two days from its upcoming earnings release on June 15, 2023.

By taking the percentage difference between the $3.80 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.78 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Adobe Systems has an Earnings ESP of +0.6%. Investors should also know that ADBE is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

ADBE is one of just a large database of Computer and Technology stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is MongoDB (MDB Quick QuoteMDB - Free Report) .

MongoDB, which is readying to report earnings on August 30, 2023, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.45 a share, and MDB is 78 days out from its next earnings report.

For MongoDB, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.41 is +9.42%.

ADBE and MDB's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>