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CPI Comes in Lower Than Expected

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Stock futures are trading higher after the Department of Labor reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-over-month in May, below the consensus estimate of 0.2% increase. In April the headline CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month. Year over year, CPI increased 4% in May, marking its lowest monthly increase since March 2021. Year over year, CPI surged 4.9% in April.

However, the core CPI (excluding the volatile food and energy items) data was not as favorable as the headline CPI. Month over month, core CPI rose 0.4%, in line with the consensus estimate as well as April’s data. However, year over year, core CPI climbed 5.3% in May, indicating that inflation remains elevated.

The CPI and the core CPI data of May will definitely influence the outcome of the Fed’s FOMC meeting scheduled Jun 13-14.  At present, the CME FedWatch tool shows a substantial 77% probability that the Fed will keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged. However, 23% of respondents expect a 25 basis-point hike in June.

Meanwhile, Oracle Corp. (ORCL - Free Report) reported strong results for fourth-quarter fiscal 2023. Quarterly earnings of $1.67 per share, outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.58 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.54 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. The company posted revenues of $13.84 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.71%.

On the M&A front, U.S. grain trader Bunge Ltd. (BG - Free Report) has decided to merge with Glencore-backed Viterra in an $18 billion deal to form one of the largest agricultural merchants in the world. However, the deal is likely to face strict regulatory scrutiny in Canada and Argentina.

The stock price of Japanese auto behemoth Toyota Motor Corp. (TM - Free Report) surged in pre-market trading after the company announced that it will unveil a new lineup of electric vehicles with next-generation batteries in 2026. The company’s newly established unit called “BEV Factory” will manufactures these electric vehicles targeting a driving range of 1,000 KM.

On Jun 13, in a surprise move, the People’s Bank of China lowered the seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.9%. This move is considered a way to inject monetary stimulus by the Chinese central bank to streamline the nation’s sagging economic growth.


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