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CSX Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 20, after market close.

The stock has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 7.8%. The consensus estimate for second-quarter earnings has declined 2% to 49 cents per share over the past 60 days.

Given this backdrop, let’s examine the factors that are likely to have influenced CSX’s performance in the quarter to be reported.

We expect coal revenues to have been impressive primarily due to high export-coal prices. We estimate coal revenues to increase 18.1% during second-quarter 2023 from second-quarter 2022 actuals.

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues indicates a 2.2% decrease year over year. Our model estimates Intermodal and Merchandise revenues to decline 24% and 2.7%, respectively, from second-quarter 2022 actuals.

Moreover, supply-chain disruptions including labor and equipment shortages are expected to have hurt CSX’s second-quarter performance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings suggests a fall of 2% year over year.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict earnings beat for CSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CSX has an Earnings ESP of -0.68% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Q1 Highlights

Quarterly earnings of 48 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents and improved 23.1% year over year. Total revenues of $3,706 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,599.1 million. The top line increased 9% year over year on the back of solid volume growth in merchandise and coal, higher fuel surcharge and pricing gains. Overall revenues per unit increased 9%.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on their second-quarter 2023 earnings.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.16% and a Zacks Rank #3. AAL will release results on Jul 20. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12.9%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s second-quarter 2023 earnings has surged more than 100% year over year.

JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +28.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. JBLU will release results on Aug 1.

JBLU has an expected earnings growth rate of 188.8% for the current year.  

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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