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Retail Sales Fall Below Expectations in June

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We started this trading week rather quietly, but things are picking up this morning: Q2 earnings from more of the top banks on Wall Street, plus leaders in other industries, are putting out numbers. And important economic data is also hitting the tape in today’s pre-market. This is something we should start getting used to, as it’s only going to pick up from here for the next few weeks.

Retail Sales for June are among those figures today, with headline +0.2% well off the expected +0.5% for the month, which happens to also be the upward revision to the previous month. This is the third straight month with Retail Sales in positive territory but not higher than half a percentage point. Compared to the rest of the past 12-month cycle, we look to have gotten much less volatile since this spring.

Ex-autos, we’re also seeing a +0.2%, down 10 basis points (bps) from expectations, +0.3%, which is also the upward revision for May. Ex-autos and gas, we see +0.3%, in-line with estimates. Surprisingly, the control number was double this, and double consensus: +0.6%. This is still well off the cycle-high +1.7% we saw in January of this year, but still carries a whiff of continued inflation along with it. The control number also feeds into GDP, which should help bolster those figures when they come out. Then again, these are all advance numbers, subject to revisions over time.

Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) keeps the parade of big banks continuing in this early part of Q2 earnings season, posting 88 cents per share versus 84 cents expected, for a +4.76% positive earnings surprise and its fourth-straight quarter of earnings beats. Revenues came in at $25.2 billion, +0.93% higher than projected. Shares are up +1.5% in today’s pre-market, but the stock has well underperformed the S&P 500 so far this year: -11.2% (prior to today) versus +17.8%.

Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) also brought notable beats on both top and bottom lines this morning, with earnings of $1.24 per share outperforming the Zacks consensus by a solid dime, while revenues easily took out estimates to $13.46 billion from an expected $12.76 billion. Declines in overall trading in the quarter were made up by Wealth Management up by +16% in the quarter. Also, CEO James Gorman is expected to step down; no successor has yet been named.

Defense giant Lockheed Martin (LMT - Free Report) makes it a clean sweep here, with beats on both earnings and sales in its Q2 report ahead of today’s open: earnings of $6.73 per share amounts to a 30-cent beat, +4.67%, while revenues of $16.69 billion in the quarter, +5.28% above estimates. This is the third quarter in the past four with a top-line beat; four of four on the bottom line. Shares are up +1.5% in the pre-market, but still down marginally year to date.


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