A month has gone by since the last earnings report for FedEx (FDX Quick QuoteFDX - Free Report) . Shares have added about 15.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is FedEx due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Earnings Beat at FedEx in Q4

FedEx's fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings (excluding $1.11 from non-recurring items) of $4.94 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.83. However, the bottom line declined 28.1% year over year.

Revenues of $21,930 million fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $22,723 million and decreased 10.1% from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s reported figure.

Quarterly results were affected by persistent demand weakness and cost inflation, partially offset by cost-reduction efforts and U.S. domestic package yield improvement.

Operating expenses (reported basis) decreased 9.1% to $20.4 billion owing to the company’s cost-reduction actions. Operating income, on a reported basis, decreased 21.9% from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s reported number to $1.50 billion due to weak shipping demand.

Segmental Performance

FedEx Express segment’s revenues fell 12.8% year over year to $10,407 million, owing to a decline in global volumes. Operating income of the segment fell 51.5% year over year due to lower global volumes, partially offset by decreased expenses and higher U.S. domestic yields.

FedEx Ground segment’s revenues decreased 2.2% year over year to $8,296 million. Operating income increased 18.3% year over year, owing to higher revenue per package and cost-reduction actions. These were partially offset by lower package volume, higher infrastructure costs and increased other operating expenses.

FedEx Freight revenues declined 17.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure to $2,269 million. The segment’s operating income declined 25.5% year over year owingto decreased shipments and lower weight per shipment, partially offset by improved revenue quality.

Average daily shipments declined 17.6% and revenue per shipment decreased 0.1%. Capital expenditures for 2023 came in at $6174 million.

Liquidity

FedEx exited fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 with cash and cash equivalents of $10,188 million compared with $5,373 million at the end of the prior quarter. Long-term debt (less current portion) was $20,453 million compared with $20,122 million at the end of the prior quarter.

Fiscal 2024 Outlook

For 2024, FedEx expects revenues to be flat to up in low single digits year over year.  Earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $15.00 to $17.00 (prior to MTM retirement plans accounting adjustments) and $16.50 to $18.50 (excluding costs related to business optimization initiatives).

FDX anticipates capital spending of $5.7 billion in fiscal 2024. The effective tax rate is estimated to be 25%. For 2024, FedEx anticipates repurchasing shares worth $2 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -8.24% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, FedEx has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

FedEx has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.