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Will Segment Revenues Aid Northrop's (NOC) Q2 Earnings?

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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC - Free Report) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 27 before market open.

Northrop has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.36%, on average. Accelerated revenues in most of its operating segments are likely to have favored the overall top line. However, higher labor and material costs due to inflation and supply-chain disruptions may have dented the bottom line of the second quarter.

Aeronautics Systems’ Sales Expected to be Weak

Lower volumes from both Manned Aircraft and Autonomous Systems and the Joint Surveillance and Target Attack Radar System are likely to have dampened the second-quarter revenue performance of the Aeronautics Systems segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aeronautics Systems’ second-quarter revenues is pegged at $2,504.9 million, indicating a decline of 1.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported revenues.

Defense Systems’ Revenues to Show Strength

Higher volumes from the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System program and the international training program, along with a ramp-up on the 120mm Tank Training ammunition program, are likely to bolster the Defense unit’s revenue performance in the second quarter of 2023.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Defense Systems’ second-quarter revenues is pegged at $1,339.1 million, implying growth of 3.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported revenues.

Mission Systems to Remain Robust

Higher sales from the Networked Information Solutions business area, the Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program, marine systems programs and infrared countermeasure programs are likely to have contributed to Mission Systems’ revenue performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mission System’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $2,629.2 million, indicating a rise of 4.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported revenues.

Space Systems – a Key Contributor to Revenues

The Space System business unit’s revenues are likely to have benefited from the ramp-up in development programs in Launch & Strategic Missiles and higher volumes from the Next Generation Interceptor and Ground-based Midcourse Defense Weapon Systems programs. Higher volumes from restricted programs are also expected to have aided the revenues of the segment in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Space System’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $3,310.7 million, suggesting an increase of 11.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported revenues.

Backlog Projections Show Strength

Our model suggests the backlog of NOC to improve by 5.9% to $84.73 billion from the prior-year reported figure. This indicates strength in its business operations that fuels the demand for its products.

Second-Quarter Estimates

The rising global defense budget-induced order growth and backlog strength in the recent past are likely to have aided the majority of NOC’s business unit performance, thus contributing to its overall second-quarter top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its second-quarter sales is pegged at $9.32 billion, indicating an increase of 5.9% from the prior-year reported figure.

A strong top line may have benefited the overall earnings of the company. However, higher labor and material costs due to a negative impact of the higher inflation rate and ongoing supply-chain disruptions may have dampened the bottom line of Northrop in the second quarter of 2023.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its second-quarter earnings is pegged at $5.31 per share, implying a decrease of 12.4% from the prior-year reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Northrop this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Northrop has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our  Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three defense companies you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Embraer S.A. (ERJ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. The long-term earnings growth rate of ERJ is 17%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Embraer’s second-quarter earnings, pegged at 12 cents per share, indicates a decline of 42.9% from the prior-year reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ERJ’s sales suggests a growth rate of 14.3% from the prior-year reported figure.

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.48% and a Zacks Rank #3. HII delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 8.09%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HII’s second-quarter sales is pegged at $2.73 billion, suggesting a growth rate of 2.5% from the prior-year reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its second-quarter earnings implies a decline of 29.3% from the prior-year reported figure.

L3Harris Technologies (LHX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank #3. LHX delivered a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 0.37%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LHX’s second-quarter sales is pegged at $4.34 billion, suggesting a growth rate of 4.9% from the prior-year reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its second-quarter earnings stands at $2.91 per share.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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