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What Awaits Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) This Earnings Season?
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Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT - Free Report) is likely to see a marginal decline in the top line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $362.5 million, indicating a slight decline of 0.9% from the year-ago figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings currently stands at 84 cents, which suggests a decrease of 33.3% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate has risen by a penny over the past seven days.
This Irvine, CA-based company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 5.5%.
Key Factors to Note
Boot Barn Holdings’ first-quarter results are likely to reflect merchandising strategies, omnichannel capabilities, store expansion initiatives and exclusive brand penetration. In the final quarter of fiscal 2023, exclusive brand penetration increased 770 basis points to 37.3%. We believe sales from new stores and a seamless shopping experience for customers are likely to have contributed to the top-line performance.
However, Boot Barn Holdings is up against the tough compares in the year-ago period and a challenging operating environment. It provided a soft view for the first quarter of fiscal 2024, reflecting a same-store sales decline and cost deleverage.
On its last earnings, management guided total sales at the high end of the guidance range of $357 million-$364 million for the first quarter. The projected range suggests a decline of 0.5% to 2.4% year over year. It guided a same-store sales decline of roughly 7-9%, with retail store same-store sales declines of 6-8% and e-commerce same-store sales declines of 15-17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for same-store sales implies a decline of 7.9%.
Boot Barn Holdings projected a first-quarter gross margin in the band of 35.7%-36%, down from 37.7% reported in the year-ago period. The guidance indicates an estimated 80-basis point increase in the merchandise margin assuming freight expenses remain flat year over year. It also takes into account 250 basis points of deleverage in buying, occupancy and distribution center costs, higher occupancy from new stores and the costs associated with the newly established Kansas City distribution center.
Management expected SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales in the range of 26.1%-26.3%, up from 23.3% reported in the year-ago period. This is likely to have hurt the operating margin. The company projected income from operations as a percentage of sales between 9.4% and 9.9% of sales. This suggests a sharp decline from 14.3% reported in the year-ago quarter. Furthermore, the company estimated earnings in the band of 79-85 cents a share, lower than the $1.26 per share delivered a year ago.
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boot Barn Holdings this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
Although Boot Barn Holdings currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.75%, it carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some companies worth considering as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings this season:
Arhaus (ARHS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is expected to register a bottom-line decline when it reports second-quarter 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 26 cents suggests a drop of 7.1% from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Arhaus’ top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $325.7 million, indicating an increase of 6.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. ARHS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 82.4%, on average.
Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.50% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.14 suggests an increase of 2.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Ross Stores’ top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.72 billion, which indicates a rise of 3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ROST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.5%, on average.
Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $4.64 suggests a rise of 10.5% from the year-ago reported number.
Costco’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $78.85 billion, which suggests an increase of 9.4% from the prior-year quarter. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.8%, on average.
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What Awaits Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) This Earnings Season?
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT - Free Report) is likely to see a marginal decline in the top line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $362.5 million, indicating a slight decline of 0.9% from the year-ago figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings currently stands at 84 cents, which suggests a decrease of 33.3% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate has risen by a penny over the past seven days.
This Irvine, CA-based company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 5.5%.
Key Factors to Note
Boot Barn Holdings’ first-quarter results are likely to reflect merchandising strategies, omnichannel capabilities, store expansion initiatives and exclusive brand penetration. In the final quarter of fiscal 2023, exclusive brand penetration increased 770 basis points to 37.3%. We believe sales from new stores and a seamless shopping experience for customers are likely to have contributed to the top-line performance.
However, Boot Barn Holdings is up against the tough compares in the year-ago period and a challenging operating environment. It provided a soft view for the first quarter of fiscal 2024, reflecting a same-store sales decline and cost deleverage.
On its last earnings, management guided total sales at the high end of the guidance range of $357 million-$364 million for the first quarter. The projected range suggests a decline of 0.5% to 2.4% year over year. It guided a same-store sales decline of roughly 7-9%, with retail store same-store sales declines of 6-8% and e-commerce same-store sales declines of 15-17%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for same-store sales implies a decline of 7.9%.
Boot Barn Holdings projected a first-quarter gross margin in the band of 35.7%-36%, down from 37.7% reported in the year-ago period. The guidance indicates an estimated 80-basis point increase in the merchandise margin assuming freight expenses remain flat year over year. It also takes into account 250 basis points of deleverage in buying, occupancy and distribution center costs, higher occupancy from new stores and the costs associated with the newly established Kansas City distribution center.
Management expected SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales in the range of 26.1%-26.3%, up from 23.3% reported in the year-ago period. This is likely to have hurt the operating margin. The company projected income from operations as a percentage of sales between 9.4% and 9.9% of sales. This suggests a sharp decline from 14.3% reported in the year-ago quarter. Furthermore, the company estimated earnings in the band of 79-85 cents a share, lower than the $1.26 per share delivered a year ago.
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Quote
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boot Barn Holdings this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
Although Boot Barn Holdings currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.75%, it carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some companies worth considering as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings this season:
Arhaus (ARHS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is expected to register a bottom-line decline when it reports second-quarter 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 26 cents suggests a drop of 7.1% from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Arhaus’ top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $325.7 million, indicating an increase of 6.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. ARHS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 82.4%, on average.
Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.50% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.14 suggests an increase of 2.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Ross Stores’ top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.72 billion, which indicates a rise of 3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ROST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.5%, on average.
Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $4.64 suggests a rise of 10.5% from the year-ago reported number.
Costco’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $78.85 billion, which suggests an increase of 9.4% from the prior-year quarter. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.8%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.