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Growth in AUM Likely to Support Ameriprise (AMP) in Q2 Earnings

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Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2023 results on Jul 26, after market close. Its revenues and earnings in the to-be-reported quarter are anticipated to have increased on a year-over-year basis.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Higher revenues supported the results. However, a tough operating backdrop hurt the assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) balances.

Ameriprise has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 5.7%.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.29 per share, which indicates a rise of 25.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate has been unchanged over the past seven days. Our estimate for earnings is pinned at $7.25.

The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $3.88 billion, which indicates an 11.5% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $3.78 billion.

Estimates & Key Factors to Note for Q2

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for management and financial advice fees (constituting more than 60% of the company’s total net revenues) is pegged at $2.28 billion, which suggests a marginal rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the same is $2.36 billion, indicating a rise of 3.7%.

The consensus estimate for distribution fees of $619 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 35.2%. Our estimate for the same is $543.3 million, suggesting a year-over-year improvement of 18.6%. The consensus estimate for premiums, policy and contract charges is pegged at $370 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 1.4%. Our estimate for the same is $396.9 million.

The consensus estimate for net investment income of $650 million suggests a significant year-over-year increase. Our estimate for the same is pinned at $510.5 million. The consensus mark for other revenues of $124 million indicates no change from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $131 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 5.7%.

Based on the expectations of improved advisor productivity, the Advice & Wealth Management segment is expected to have recorded growth in assets in the second quarter.

Moreover, supported by overall asset inflows, the total AUM balance is likely to have increased. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total AUM and AUA is pegged at $1.26 trillion, indicating an increase of 8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the metric is $1.25 trillion.

While Ameriprise’s initiatives to focus on cost management have resulted in controlled general and administration expenses in the past, overall costs are anticipated to have been elevated in the to-be-reported quarter due to costs related to technology upgrades. Our estimate for total expenses is pegged at $3.41 billion, indicating a rise of 33.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Earnings Whispers

According to our quantitative model, the chances of Ameriprise beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are high. This is because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to be confident of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Ameriprise has an Earnings ESP of +0.11%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

A couple of other finance stocks, which you may want to consider as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases per our model, are Moody's Corporation (MCO - Free Report) and Ares Management Corporation (ARES - Free Report) .

The Earnings ESP for Moody's is +2.24%. MCO carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. It is expected to report results on Jul 25. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Ares Management is scheduled to release quarterly results on Aug 1. ARES currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.20%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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