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Factors to Take Notice of Before Pioneer's (PXD) Q2 Earnings

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Pioneer Natural Resources Company  is set to report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 1, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the upstream company’s earnings of $5.21 per share (excluding one-time items) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.90, owing to higher oil-equivalent production volumes. The positives were partially offset by lower realizations of commodity prices.

Pioneer beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the trailing four quarters, delivering an earnings surprise of 3.65%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pioneer’s second-quarter earnings per share of $4.12 has witnessed three upward revisions and eight downward movements in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests a decline of 56% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s revenues of $4.7 billion indicates a 32.4% year-over-year decline.

Key Factors to Note

In the June-end quarter of 2023, the oil price scenario was not healthier than the prior year. Thus, realized crude prices before hedges, one of the key metrics in determining crude oil sales, are likely to have declined. This is expected to have affected Pioneer’s exploration and production business.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pioneer’s average daily sales volume for oil is pegged at 364.7 thousand barrels, suggesting an increase from the 348 thousand barrels reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for average daily total sales volume is pegged at 358 thousand barrels, also indicating an increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pioneer’s average oil price is pegged at 74 per barrel, suggesting a decline from 111 per barrel in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the average oil price is pegged at 74.65 per barrel, also implying a decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pioneer’s sale of purchased commodities in the second quarter is pegged at $2,157 million, suggesting a decline from the $2,366 million reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the same is pegged at $1,534 million, also implying a year-over-year decline.

Since the fate of upstream players is highly dependent on oil prices, the lower average price per barrel of oil is likely to have affected Pioneer’s profits in the second quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Pioneer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Pioneer has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both pinned at $4.12 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: PXD currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly results:

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MUSA’s earnings is pegged at $6.11 per share, suggesting a decline from the prior-year reported figure.

Cactus, Inc. (WHD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.97% and a Zacks #3 at present.

Cactus is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WHD’s earnings is pegged at 69 cents per share, indicating an improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Southwestern Energy Company (SWN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.21% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player at present.

Southwestern is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SWN’s earnings is pegged at 7 cents per share, suggesting a decline from the prior-year reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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