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Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q2 Earnings: Will It Beat Estimates?
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We expect Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it releases second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 3, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 110.73%.
Factors to Note
During the second quarter, sales of COVID-19 vaccines are likely to have declined significantly due to lower demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for second-quarter product sales is pegged at $233 million and $246 million, respectively.
Due to the substantial fall in COVID-19 vaccine sales compared with previous quarters’ levels, we expect Moderna to post its first quarterly loss in over two years since the FDA’s first authorization to its COVID vaccine in December 2020.
Earlier this month, Moderna initiated regulatory submissions for its mRNA-based RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, for use in older adults (aged 60 years and above) in several markets, including the United States, Europe and Australia. We expect mRNA-1345 to be the company’s next major commercial launch following its blockbuster COVID-19 vaccines. Investors could expect the company to discuss the commercial rollout plan for mRNA-1345 during the second-quarter earnings conference call.
Investors would also be inclined about Moderna’s progress with its pipeline. The company is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting different indications, including cancer. Moderna is evaluating three candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 (cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine), mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine) and mRNA-4157/V940 [personalized cancer vaccine (PCV)].
Last month, Moderna and Merck (MRK - Free Report) reported new data from the phase IIb evaluating mRNA-4157, in melanoma indication. Data from the study showed that mRNA-4157 combined with Merck’s Keytruda reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death by 65% compared with participants who were treated with Merck's Keytruda alone. The study previously achieved its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival. Moderna/Merck initiated the phase III study on mRNA-4157 in melanoma patients based on these positive results.
Moderna also records collaboration revenue from partners who use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for second-quarter collaboration revenues are pegged at $13.3 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Investors would also like to seek updates from management on the company’s recently entered deal with the Chinese government to research, develop and manufacture mRNA medicines exclusively for sale in China. Multiple reports suggest that Moderna could invest up to a billion dollars in the deal.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing on the other two occasions. The average surprise is 21.97%.
Moderna’s shares have declined 33.9% year to date compared with the industry’s fall of 11.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is +5.90% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of $3.61 is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.84. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +38.26% and a Zacks Rank #2.
In the year so far, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’ shares have risen 82.4%. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. ACAD has delivered an earnings surprise of 2.75%, on average. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 2.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 16.6% so far this year. NVO topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.35%, on average. Novo Nordisk is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 10.
Image: Shutterstock
Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q2 Earnings: Will It Beat Estimates?
We expect Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it releases second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 3, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company reported an earnings surprise of 110.73%.
Factors to Note
During the second quarter, sales of COVID-19 vaccines are likely to have declined significantly due to lower demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for second-quarter product sales is pegged at $233 million and $246 million, respectively.
Due to the substantial fall in COVID-19 vaccine sales compared with previous quarters’ levels, we expect Moderna to post its first quarterly loss in over two years since the FDA’s first authorization to its COVID vaccine in December 2020.
Earlier this month, Moderna initiated regulatory submissions for its mRNA-based RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, for use in older adults (aged 60 years and above) in several markets, including the United States, Europe and Australia. We expect mRNA-1345 to be the company’s next major commercial launch following its blockbuster COVID-19 vaccines. Investors could expect the company to discuss the commercial rollout plan for mRNA-1345 during the second-quarter earnings conference call.
Investors would also be inclined about Moderna’s progress with its pipeline. The company is developing more than 30 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting different indications, including cancer. Moderna is evaluating three candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 (cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine), mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine) and mRNA-4157/V940 [personalized cancer vaccine (PCV)].
Last month, Moderna and Merck (MRK - Free Report) reported new data from the phase IIb evaluating mRNA-4157, in melanoma indication. Data from the study showed that mRNA-4157 combined with Merck’s Keytruda reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death by 65% compared with participants who were treated with Merck's Keytruda alone. The study previously achieved its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival. Moderna/Merck initiated the phase III study on mRNA-4157 in melanoma patients based on these positive results.
Moderna also records collaboration revenue from partners who use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for second-quarter collaboration revenues are pegged at $13.3 million and $10.0 million, respectively.
Investors would also like to seek updates from management on the company’s recently entered deal with the Chinese government to research, develop and manufacture mRNA medicines exclusively for sale in China. Multiple reports suggest that Moderna could invest up to a billion dollars in the deal.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s surprise history has been mixed, with earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters while missing on the other two occasions. The average surprise is 21.97%.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Moderna’s shares have declined 33.9% year to date compared with the industry’s fall of 11.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna’s Earnings ESP is +5.90% as the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of $3.61 is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $3.84. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Moderna has a Zacks Rank #3, currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +38.26% and a Zacks Rank #2.
In the year so far, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’ shares have risen 82.4%. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the mark on the other two occasions. ACAD has delivered an earnings surprise of 2.75%, on average. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 2.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 16.6% so far this year. NVO topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.35%, on average. Novo Nordisk is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 10.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.