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Atlassian (TEAM) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Atlassian (TEAM - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Aug 3.

Atlassian projects fiscal fourth-quarter revenues between $900 million and $920 million ($910 million at the midpoint). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $911.2 million, suggesting growth of 19.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

For fourth-quarter earnings, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 43 cents per share, implying a 59.3% increase from 27 cents reported in the year-ago period.

Atlassian surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the same on one occasion, the average surprise being 26.9%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.

Atlassian Corporation PLC Price and EPS Surprise Atlassian Corporation PLC Price and EPS Surprise

Atlassian Corporation PLC price-eps-surprise | Atlassian Corporation PLC Quote

Key Factors to Note

The rising adoption of TEAM’s cloud-based solutions and the massive digitalization trend in organizations, along with the growing hybrid working trend, are likely to have favored the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance. The growing demand for Atlassian’s cloud products from new and existing clients using on-premises products might have acted as a tailwind.

Our estimate for revenues from Cloud deployment is pegged at $554.3 million, indicating a 27.7% increase from the year-ago quarter. Revenues from Data Center deployment are anticipated to grow 38.1% year over year to $219.5 million.

The increasing traction for core products like Jira Software and Confluence Cloud and the rising adoption of new products like Jira Service Management may have acted as key catalysts. An improvement in product quality and performance, multiple product launches and increased pricing are also likely to have boosted the firm’s performance.

Atlassian’s latest focus on adding AI features to some of its collaboration software is likely to have driven the fourth-quarter top line. In April 2023, the company collaborated with OpenAI to enhance the capabilities of its Confluence, Jira Service Management and other programs with generative AI features.

Robust growth in subscription revenues, aided by the solid uptake of the company’s subscription-based offerings, is likely to be reflected in the to-be-reported quarter’s results. Our estimate of $764.5 million for the Subscription segment’s revenues indicates massive 28% year-over-year growth.

A large number of customers are opting for cloud offerings amid the ongoing cloud migration. Such new additions and increased pricing on certain products contributed to the company’s quarterly revenues. Our estimate suggests that TEAM is likely to have ended the fourth quarter with 266,330 customers, which will be a significant improvement of 9.8% year over year and 2.5% sequentially.

Additionally, Atlassian’s sustained focus on cost savings is likely to have boosted the fourth-quarter bottom line. The company expects that its March 2023 announced restructuring actions, which include a reduction of lease-related expenses and total workforce by 5% or 500 employees, will benefit the fourth-quarter operating income by $20 million.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Atlassian this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Though TEAM currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3, it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Per our model, NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) , Apple (AAPL - Free Report) and Alibaba (BABA - Free Report) have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

NVIDIA is slated to report second-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Aug 23. The company sports a Zacks Rank #1 and has an Earnings ESP of +5.56% at present. NVDA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the trailing four quarters while missing the same on two occasions, the average surprise being 0.3%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.06 per share, suggesting a whopping increase of 303.9% from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 51 cents. NVIDIA’s quarterly revenues are estimated to increase 64.4% year over year to $11.02 billion.

Apple carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.66%. The company is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Aug 3. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice in the preceding four quarters while missing the same on one occasion, with the average surprise being 2.7%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple’s third-quarter earnings stands at $1.19 per share, a penny lower than the year-ago quarter. It is estimated to report revenues of $81.26 billion, which suggests a decrease of approximately 2.1% from the year-ago quarter.

Alibaba carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of +6.19%. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Aug 10. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 16.9%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BABA’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.90 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 8.6%. The consensus mark for revenues stands at $31.01 billion, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 1%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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