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Ligand (LGND) to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2023 results on Aug 8, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 121.36%.

Let's see how things might have shaped up in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

Factors to Consider

Ligand gains revenues primarily from the Captisol material sales, contract revenues for services and royalties on sales of products commercialized by its partners.

Total revenues in the second quarter are likely to have been boosted by growth in royalty revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for royalty revenues are pegged at $18.71 million and $19.1 million, respectively.

Amgen’s (AMGN - Free Report) multiple myeloma injection Kyprolis has been one of the top royalty revenue generators for Ligand in the past few quarters, a trend that is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Amgen reported an encouraging performance by Kyprolis in the second quarter. The drug generated sales of $346 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 9%, driven by volume growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kyprolis royalties is pegged at $7.82 million and our estimate for the same is pinned at $7.4 million.

Over the years, Ligand has added new technology platforms beyond Captisol. Pelican, one of the company’s proprietary technology platforms, also continues to contribute to the company’s royalty revenues by adding new license deals with new partners. Growth in sales of drugs developed using the Pelican technology platform is likely to have boosted LGND’s top-line performance.

Ligand’s total Captisol sales declined in the recent quarters and the trend is likely to have continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The decline in revenues is primarily due to lowcaptisol sales for Veklury, Gilead’s COVID-19 antiviral, reflecting reduced demand for pandemic-related treatment. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for core Captisol sales is pegged at $3.28 million and our estimate for the same is pinned at $3.6 million.

The consensus mark and our model estimate for Captisol sales related to COVID-19 are pinned at $4.50 million and $4 million, respectively. The company did not record any COVID-related Captisol sale in the first quarter.

General and administrativeexpenses are likely to have decreased in the second quarter due to lower legal expenses in connection with the OmniAb spinoff.

Earnings Surprise History

LGND’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 21.50%.

Shares of the company have lost 32.7% in the past year compared with the industry's 16.7% decline.

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Earnings Whisper

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Ligand this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Ligand has an Earnings ESP of -7.29% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 70 cents per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 76 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Ligand currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of stocks worth considering from the overall healthcare space as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

bluebird bio (BLUE - Free Report)  has an Earnings ESP of +9.16% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BLUE’s shares have lost 38.8% in the past year. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 88.25%. The company will also report second-quarter earnings on Aug 8, before market open.

Kodiak Sciences (KOD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.05% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

KOD’s shares have lost 70.7% in the past year. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in one, delivering an average surprise of 7.50%.

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