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Retail ETFs in Focus Ahead of Big-Box Q2 Earnings

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The retail sector is in focus ahead of the earnings releases from big retailers. Big-box retailers like Wal-Mart (WM - Free Report) T), Home Depot (HD - Free Report) , Lowe’s (LOW - Free Report) and Target (TGT - Free Report) , as well as store channels like Nordstrom (JWN) and Kohls (KSS - Free Report) are expected to report this week and the next.

On the S&P 500 Index, 19 out of 33 retailers have already reported and earnings of these companies are up 49% from the same period last year on 8.3% higher revenues, with 78.9% beating EPS estimates and 52.6% beating revenue estimates. Overall, the retail sector is expected to report earnings growth of 49% on 8.3% revenue growth (read: ETF Areas & Stocks to Win Despite Muted June Retail Sales).

Given this, the traditional retail ETFs are thus in focus. SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT - Free Report) and VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report) have gained more than 8% each in the past three months.

What Our Model Unveils for Retailer Earnings

According to our methodology, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Wal-Mart has an Earnings ESP of +1.07% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company saw a positive earnings estimate revision of a penny over the past 7 days for the to-be-reported quarter. Analysts raising estimates right before earnings — with the most up-to-date information possible — is a good indicator for the stock. Wal-Mart delivered an average earnings surprise of 12.03% in the last four quarters. Wal-Mart is scheduled to report on Aug 17 before market open and has a VGM Score of B (see: all the Consumer Discretionary ETFs here).

Home Depot has an Earnings ESP of -0.53% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company saw no earnings estimate revision over the past 30 days for the to-be-reported quarter. It delivered an average earnings surprise of 1.66% in the last four quarters. Home Depot is scheduled to report on Aug 15 before market open and has a VGM Score of B.

Target has an Earnings ESP of -6.82% and a Zacks Rank #4. The company saw a negative earnings estimate revision of a couple of cents over the past 7 days for the to-be-reported quarter and delivered a negative earnings surprise of 4.91% for the last four quarters. Target is likely to report earnings on Aug 16, before the opening bell and has a VGM Score of B.

Lowe’s has an Earnings ESP of -0.22% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company witnessed no earnings estimate revision over the past 30 days for the to-be-reported quarter but delivered an earnings surprise of 3.66%, on average, in the last four quarters. LOW has a VGM Score of A and is slated to report earnings before the bell on Aug 22.

Nordstrom has an Earnings ESP of -8.89% and a Zacks Rank #3. It saw negative earnings estimate revision of a penny for the to-be-reported quarter in the past 7 days. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 54.07%, on average, over the past four quarters. It will likely report earnings on Aug 24 after the closing bell and has a VGM Score of A.

Kohls has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. It saw a positive earnings estimate revision of a couple of cents for the to-be-reported quarter in the past 7 days. Kohls delivered a negative average earnings surprise of 52.05% in the last four quarters. The company is expected to report before the opening bell on Aug 23. It has a VGM Score of A.

ETFs in Focus

SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT - Free Report)

SPDR S&P Retail ETF tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, which provides exposure across large-, mid- and small-cap stocks. It holds well-diversified 80 stocks in its basket, with none making up for more than a 2.6% share. Additionally, SPDR S&P Retail ETF is well spread across various industries with a double-digit allocation each in apparel retail, specialty retail, automotive retail, and broad-line retail (read: ETFs to Benefit & Lose From Higher Oil Price).

SPDR S&P Retail ETF is the largest and most popular in the retail space, with AUM of $336.7 million and an average trading volume of 5 million shares. It charges 35 bps in annual fees and has a Zacks ETF Rank #1 with a Medium risk outlook.

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH - Free Report)

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF provides exposure to the 26 largest retail firms by tracking the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which measures the performance of the companies involved in retail distribution, wholesalers, online, direct mail and TV retailers, multi-line retailers, specialty retailers and food and other staples retailers. VanEck Vectors Retail ETF is highly concentrated on the top firm with more than 21% exposure, while the other firms hold no more than 9.3% share.

VanEck Vectors Retail ETF has amassed $156.3 million in its asset base and charges 35 bps in annual fees. It trades in a lower volume of 4,000 shares a day on average. VanEck Vectors Retail ETF has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook.

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