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Is a Beat in Store for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) in Q2 Earnings?

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Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA - Free Report) is likely to register top-and-bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2023 earnings on Aug 24.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2,503 million, suggesting an increase of nearly 9% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line has improved from $5.81 to $5.84 over the past seven days. The projection indicates 2.5% growth from earnings reported in the year-ago period. This cosmetics, fragrance, haircare and skincare products company has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 15.9%, on average.

Ulta Beauty Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Ulta Beauty Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Ulta Beauty Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Ulta Beauty Inc. Quote

Factors to Consider

The company’s focus on its six strategic priorities has been working well. Ulta Beauty’s foremost priority is to strengthen its omnichannel business and explore the potential of both physical and digital facets. Next, the company has been undertaking various tools to enhance the experience of guests, like offering a virtual try-on tool and in-store education, and reimagining fixtures, among others.

Thirdly, ULTA concentrates on offering customers a curated and exclusive range of beauty products through innovation. Moving on, the company is focused on deepening customer engagement by boosting rewards and loyalty programs. Fifthly, management is committed to optimizing its cost structure. Apart from these, management strives to boost organizational talent and strengthen culture. These upsides bode well for the second quarter.

Ulta Beauty’s skincare category has been gaining from consumers’ rising interest in self-care and the company’s product newness. The trend continued in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, wherein skincare was the company’s best-performing category.

ULTA saw double-digit growth in both mass and prestige. While the operating landscape is likely to keep evolving, management remains confident about the resilience of the beauty category, which is likely to have aided second-quarter performance.

However, the company has been seeing a rise in SG&A costs for a while now. Management expects SG&A deleverage in fiscal 2023 due to strategic investments as well as overall cost inflation. It also expects increased gross margin deleverage in the fiscal year due to the effects of increased shrink and a more competitive and promotional landscape. These aspects raise concerns for the quarter under review. We expect an SG&A cost increase of 19.7% in the second quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Ulta Beauty this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Ulta Beauty has an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Coty (COTY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +20.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company’s top and bottom lines are expected to increase year over year when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coty’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.3 billion, which implies a rise of 13.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly EPS is pegged at 2 cents, which indicates 300% growth from the year-ago period figure. COTY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 145%, on average.

Kohl’s Corporation (KSS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company’s top line is expected to decrease year over year when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kohl’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.9 billion, calling for a 4.4% decline from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KSS’ quarterly EPS is pegged at 24 cents, indicating a drop of 78.4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Hormel Foods (HRL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.45% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company’s top and bottom lines are expected to increase year over year when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hormel Foods’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.1 billion, which implies a rise of 2.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly EPS is pegged at 41 cents, which indicates a 2.5% jump from the year-ago period figure. HRL has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 2.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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