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Urban Outfitters, Toll Bros Beat After Market Close

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Markets were once again mixed today, though toward lower levels than we’ve generally seen all week. The Dow shed another -167 points, -0.49%, while the Nasdaq rose marginally, +0.06%. The S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000 lost -0.27% and -0.26%, respectively. Over the past five trading sessions, all of these major indices are down: the Dow -2.13%, Nasdaq -0.79%, S&P -1.25% and Russell -2.48%.

Continuing this out a little further, following our very strong July, we’re now down -3.17% on the Dow for the past month of trading -3.93% on the Nasdaq, -3.67% for the S&P and -5.83%. Aside from small-caps falling off the table here a bit, these indices have sold off in a fairly uniform manner. Year to date, we’re still up across the board: Dow +3.48%, Russell +5.74%, S&P +14.7% and the Nasdaq — riding through much of the summer on high hopes for A.I. — still +30% since the start of the year.

All of this is to say that we’ve retreated to valuations not seen since early July, and we’ve made it mostly through yet another earnings season without seeing a certain recession on the horizon. Retailers reporting now are looking at softness with the consumer; perhaps the spending we’d seen as of the Great Reopening has finally tapped out — Macy’s (M - Free Report) this morning saw issues with credit card usage in its quarter. Perhaps the consumer is worried about the prospect of a weakening economy looking ahead, or perhaps their perceptions haven’t yet cleared toward accepting a possible “soft landing” of the economy.

Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated Urban Outfitters (URBN - Free Report) posted beats on both top and bottom lines for Q2: earnings of $1.10 per share outpaced the 89 cents in the Zacks consensus, on revenues of $1.27 billion which bettered the $1.25 billion anticipated. Total same-store sales in the quarter were up a higher-than-expected +4.9%, while comps for its namesake brand came in a little light of estimates. The company was able to notch higher merchandise markups in the quarter, and shares have added +1.6% on the news, following +43% gains year to date.

High-end homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL - Free Report) surged past estimates in its fiscal Q3 report out after today’s close, with earnings of $3.73 per share well ahead of the $2.86 in the Zacks consensus (itself a nice ways ahead of the year-ago’s $2.35 per share). Sales in the quarter reached $2.67 billion, easily outperforming the $2.47 billion expected (and swinging to positive growth year over year). Signed contracts grew +77% from the year-ago quarter, which is particularly remarkable considering this quarter mortgage rates hit their highest levels since the before the mortgage crisis of nearly 14 years ago. Apparently, the luxury market (average home price: $1.06 million) is less bothered by these high interest rates.

Tomorrow afternoon, NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) reports earnings — which you already know if you’ve been following the market at all this week. The company currently carries the odd distinction of having a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) with a Value-Growth-Momentum score of F. Earnings are supposed to come in north of +300% year over year, +65% on revenues. But in general, stocks trading upwards of more that +200% year to date can be expected to beat estimates. We’ll see how they do roughly 24 hours from now.

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