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Here's Why You Should Retain Unum Group (UNM) Stock Now

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Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) has been in investors’ good books owing to disciplined sales trends, higher premium income, favorable risk results and estimates and solid capital position.

Optimistic Growth Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Unum Group’s 2023 earnings is pegged at $7.69 per share, indicating a 23.8% increase from the year-ago reported figure on 2.8% higher revenues of $12.35 billion. The consensus estimate for 2024 earnings is pegged at $7.93 per share, indicating a 3.1% increase from the year-ago reported figure on 3.4% higher revenues of $12.78 billion.

The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 7.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 6.4%.

Northbound Estimate Revision

Estimates for 2023 and 2024 have moved up nearly 2.3% and 1.2%, respectively, in the past 30 days, reflecting investors’ optimism.

Earnings Surprise History

Unum Group has a decent earnings surprise history. It beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed in one, the average beat being 7.33%.

Zacks Rank & Price Performance

UNM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). In the past year, the stock has gained 25.5%, outperforming the industry’s growth of 15.1%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Style Score

UNM has a favorable VGM Score of A. VGM Score helps to identify stocks with the most attractive value, best growth and most promising momentum.

Business Tailwinds

Solid operational performance, favorable benefits experience as well as solid top-line improvement in the core businesses should continue to fuel growth and help UNM achieve its targeted growth. Management remains focused on moving on to a mix of businesses with higher growth and stable margins. This should help Unum Group’s premium from core business to increase 4-6% over the long term.

Unum U.S. continues to benefit from disciplined sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and the growth of new product lines like dental and vision, which improve premium income.

Riding on improving premium income and favorable risk results, operating income in the Colonial Life segment is expected to improve. In 2023, UNM expects positive adjusted operating income growth with sales improvement.

Sales in the Colonial Life segment are likely to gain from healthy agent recruiting and productive small-case sales. Colonial Life expects sales growth in the range of 8-12%, premium growth in the band of 1-3% and adjusted operating return on equity in the range of 20-22% in 2023.

The insurer boasts a solid capital position. Sustained solid operating results have been driving a solid level of statutory earnings and capital, cushioning financial flexibility. The weighted average risk-based capital ratio for the company's traditional U.S. insurance companies was 450% as of Jun 30, 2023, and the holding companies had available holding company liquidity of $1,072 million. Over the long term, UNM expects a risk-based capital ratio of more than 350% and by the end of 2023, the ratio is expected to be 400%.

Unum Group has consistently enhanced shareholders’ value through dividend hikes and share buybacks. The dividend yield of the company was 2.9%, higher than the industry average of 2.3%, making it an attractive pick for yield-seeking investors. Currently, the remaining repurchase amount under the current share repurchase program was $150 million. UNM expects to increase the run rate of share repurchase by 50% in the upcoming quarter and pay a 10% higher dividend.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks from the insurance industry are Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) , Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS - Free Report) and Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL - Free Report) . While Arch Capital and Axis Capital sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, Kinsale Capital carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Arch Capital has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates in each of the last trailing four quarters, the average being 26.83%. In the past year, ACGL has gained 62.2%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACGL’s 2023 and 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $6.73 and $7.43, indicating a year-over-year increase of 38.1% and 10.4%, respectively.

Axis Capital has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missing in one, the average being 9.75%. In the past year, AXS has gained 2.3%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AXS’ 2023 and 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $8.41 and $9.31, indicating a year-over-year increase of 44.7% and 10.7%, respectively.

Kinsale Capital beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average being 14.88%. In the past year, KNSL has rallied 43.4%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 and 2024 has moved 8.5% and 7.8% north, respectively, in the past 30 days, reflecting analysts’ optimism.

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