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Airline Stock Roundup: AAL's Bearish Q3 Cost View, ALGT's July Traffic Report

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In the past week, American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) received encouraging tidings on the labor front when the company’s pilots, represented by Allied Pilots Association or APA, approved a four-year deal pertaining to wage increase. Due to the pay increase, management expects labor costs to increase in third-quarter 2023.

Meanwhile, Allegiant Travel's (ALGT - Free Report) traffic report for the month of July was impressive owing to the post-pandemic surge in air-travel demand. Driven by high passenger volumes, load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) in July inched up 0.7 points to 91.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Read the last Airline Roundup here.

Recap of the Past Week’s Most Important Stories

1. The approval of the tentative agreement makes AAL’s pilots eligible for an immediate pay raise in excess of 21% on average. Also, the deal includes provisions aimed at improving pilots’ quality of life. The approval implies that company contributions to retirement plans will increase. The contract becomes amendable on Aug 1, 2027 and includes a provision that the next round of bargaining can begin as soon as November 2026. The four-year contract boosts the overall compensation of AAL pilots by more than 46% over its duration and is valued at $9.6 billion.

The deal has provisions for retroactive pay for the first four months of 2023. This implies that $230 million will get reflected as additional expenses in the September-quarter results. Including the expenditures associated with the deal, American Airlines now expects third-quarter cost per available seat mile excluding fuel and net special items or CASM-ex to rise in the 4-6% band on a year-over-year basis (prior guidance: 2-4% year-over-year jump).

2. In July, scheduled traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) at ALGT was flat compared with July 2022 levels. Capacity (measured in available seat miles) for scheduled service also decreased marginally from the July 2022 reading. For the total system (including scheduled service and fixed fee contract), Allegiant carried more passengers in July 2023 from the year-ago period’s level. Total departures (scheduled services) increased 3.2% in July 2023 from its year-ago levels. Fuel price per gallon in July is estimated to have been $2.77 compared with $2.64 in June.

3. JetBlue Airways (JBLU - Free Report) reportedly aims to hike fares on Spirit Airlines’ flights by as much as 40% if the $3.8 billion deal materializes. JBLU intends to do away with 24 seats on an average from each of SAVE’s roughly 200 planes to reduce capacity and increase prices. The disclosure may jeopardize the chances of the deal, which was announced in July 2022, going through. The Justice Department is already challenging the deal with a trial expected to commence in October.

Currently, JBLU carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Price Performance

The following table shows the price movement of the major airline players over the past week and during the past six months.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The table above shows that the majority of airline stocks traded in the red in the past week. The NYSE ARCA Airline Index declined 1% over the period to $61.22. Over the course of the past six months, the sector tracker has increased 1.8%.

What's Next in the Airline Space?

Stay tuned for the usual news updates in the space.


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