We cap off another Jobs Week this Friday with the monthly Employment Situation Report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) out this morning. Results look modestly positive, until you look through the details — then this looks like a very favorable report, labor market- and inflation-wise. Goldilocks, in fact. The Unemployment Rate ticked up 30 basis points (bps) to 3.8%, which is higher than expected.
A total of 187K new jobs were created in the month of August, higher than the 170K expected but the third-straight month sub-200K, which is consistent with a cooling jobs market. Revisions for the previous two months are significant: July’s number shed 30K to 157K and June’s headline — originally posted at 209K and revised last month to 185K — is now ratcheted down to 105K, by far the lowest of the past year.
What’s especially heartening about this report is the Labor Force Participation Rate, which had been stuck at +62.6% for several months but today has grown by 20 bps. This is directly reflecting citizens re-joining the workforce, +736K, and is now at the highest level since pre-Covid. It’s also why the sudden jump in the Unemployment Rate is not so concerning. Hourly Wages did grow, but by +0.24% — less than the +0.3% predicted. Hours Worked rose just +0.2%, the lowest monthly move since February of last year.
Healthcare jobs led the way for the month, to +71K, followed by Leisure & Hospitality, slowing down to +40K. Social Assistance and Construction jobs gained +26K and +22K, respectively. We saw losses in Transportation/Warehousing, -34K — consisting mostly of the -30K newly unemployed from the Yellow Corp. bankruptcy. Also, the Hollywood strike on motion picture and sound shed -17K jobs in the month. Overall, a cooling/shifting yet still healthy labor market is what these numbers reveal.
Pre-market trading agrees. Ahead of the BLS announcement, we saw the Dow +135 points, the S&P 500 +16 and the Nasdaq — the only major index still riding a five-day winning streak — +36 points. Following the BLS release, we’re now at +192K on the Dow, +28 on the S&P and +98 points on the Nasdaq. For the first trading day of a new month, we’ll happily take it — and leave the challenging August market behind.
Image: Bigstock
Non-Farm Payrolls Increased More Than Expected
We cap off another Jobs Week this Friday with the monthly Employment Situation Report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) out this morning. Results look modestly positive, until you look through the details — then this looks like a very favorable report, labor market- and inflation-wise. Goldilocks, in fact. The Unemployment Rate ticked up 30 basis points (bps) to 3.8%, which is higher than expected.
A total of 187K new jobs were created in the month of August, higher than the 170K expected but the third-straight month sub-200K, which is consistent with a cooling jobs market. Revisions for the previous two months are significant: July’s number shed 30K to 157K and June’s headline — originally posted at 209K and revised last month to 185K — is now ratcheted down to 105K, by far the lowest of the past year.
What’s especially heartening about this report is the Labor Force Participation Rate, which had been stuck at +62.6% for several months but today has grown by 20 bps. This is directly reflecting citizens re-joining the workforce, +736K, and is now at the highest level since pre-Covid. It’s also why the sudden jump in the Unemployment Rate is not so concerning. Hourly Wages did grow, but by +0.24% — less than the +0.3% predicted. Hours Worked rose just +0.2%, the lowest monthly move since February of last year.
Healthcare jobs led the way for the month, to +71K, followed by Leisure & Hospitality, slowing down to +40K. Social Assistance and Construction jobs gained +26K and +22K, respectively. We saw losses in Transportation/Warehousing, -34K — consisting mostly of the -30K newly unemployed from the Yellow Corp. bankruptcy. Also, the Hollywood strike on motion picture and sound shed -17K jobs in the month. Overall, a cooling/shifting yet still healthy labor market is what these numbers reveal.
Pre-market trading agrees. Ahead of the BLS announcement, we saw the Dow +135 points, the S&P 500 +16 and the Nasdaq — the only major index still riding a five-day winning streak — +36 points. Following the BLS release, we’re now at +192K on the Dow, +28 on the S&P and +98 points on the Nasdaq. For the first trading day of a new month, we’ll happily take it — and leave the challenging August market behind.