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Why Is UGI (UGI) Down 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for UGI (UGI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UGI due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

UGI's Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Decrease Y/Y

UGI Corporation reported third-quarter fiscal 2023 break-even earnings per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 7 cents by 100%. In the year-ago quarter, the company reported earnings of 6 cents.

UGI’s adjusted earnings fell year over year as higher gas rates, increased customer growth in regulated utilities, higher margins from natural gas gathering and marketing activities, and increased LPG unit margins were offset by a rise in operating and administrative expenses across all its reportable segments.

Total Revenues

Revenues of $1,659 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,515 million by 34%. The top line also declined 18.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of $2,033 million.

Segmental Results

AmeriGas Propane: Revenues of $514 million were down 14% from the year-ago quarter. Retail gallons sold during the quarter declined 6% year over year. This was due to customer attrition and structural conservation.

UGI International: Revenues totaled nearly $611 million, down 17% from the year-ago level.

Midstream & Marketing: Revenues of $279 million were up 47% year over year. This was due to the timing of the settlement of storage hedge contracts in the prior year.

UGI Utilities: Sales of $278 million were up 1% from that registered in the year-ago period. The rise was because of an increase in the Gas Utility base rates.

Corporate & Other: This segment incurred a loss of $23 million, narrower than the prior-year quarter’s loss of $101 million.

Highlights of the Release

As of Jun 30, 2023, UGI reported a strong balance sheet, with available liquidity of approximately $1.8 billion.

Total interest expenses were $96 million, up 17.1% from the year-ago quarter’s $82 million.

Guidance

UGI reaffirmed its fiscal 2023 adjusted earnings to be at the low end of its guidance of $2.75-$2.90 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $2.76 per share, lower than $2.82, the midpoint of the company’s guided range.

UGI aims to deliver 6-10% earnings per share growth and 4% dividend growth over the long term.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 40% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, UGI has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, UGI has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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