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Why Is Axsome (AXSM) Up 8.6% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Axsome due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates
Axsome incurred an adjusted loss $1.00 per share in the second quarter, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.24. The figure has been adjusted for stock-based compensation expense, loss/gain in fair value of contingent consideration and intangible asset amortization.
Adjusting for loss/ gain in fair value of contingent consideration and intangible asset amortization, Axsome had reported an adjusted loss of 1.05 cents per share in the year-ago period.
The company’s total revenues of $46.7 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $40 million. It recorded revenues of $8.8 million in the year-ago period.
Quarter in Detail
Total revenues consist of product revenues from Sunosi, Auvelity and royalty revenues.
Net product revenues were $46 million in the quarter compared with $8.8 million in the year-ago period. The figure beat our model estimate of $37.1 million. Royalty revenues totaled $0.7 million for the quarter, reflecting Sunosi sales in the out-licensed territories.
Auvelity recorded sales of $27.6 million, up 76% from the previous quarter’s level, reflecting growth in prescription demand. The figure beat our model estimate of $23 million. There were no Auvelity sales in the comparable period of 2022.
Sunosi’s net product sales were $18.4 million, up 117% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Total prescriptions for Sunosi grew 15% year over year and 8% sequentially.
Research and development expenses (including stock-based compensation) amounted to $20.6 million, up 30.4% from the year-ago quarter’s level. The increase was due to higher costs associated with clinical studies, personnel and post-marketing commitments for Sunosi and Auvelity.
Selling, general and administrative expenses (including stock-based compensation) totaled $78.9 million, up 153% year over year. The significant increase was due to higher commercial activities for Sunosi and Auvelity.
2023 Guidance
Management believes that its cash balance of $437.1 million (as of June 2023 end) is enough to fund future operations into cash flow positivity.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -12.52% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Axsome has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Axsome has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Axsome belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY - Free Report) , has gained 0.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2023.
Bristol Myers reported revenues of $11.23 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.6%. EPS of $1.75 for the same period compares with $1.93 a year ago.
Bristol Myers is expected to post earnings of $1.84 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -7.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.8%.
Bristol Myers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Why Is Axsome (AXSM) Up 8.6% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Axsome due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates
Axsome incurred an adjusted loss $1.00 per share in the second quarter, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.24. The figure has been adjusted for stock-based compensation expense, loss/gain in fair value of contingent consideration and intangible asset amortization.
Adjusting for loss/ gain in fair value of contingent consideration and intangible asset amortization, Axsome had reported an adjusted loss of 1.05 cents per share in the year-ago period.
The company’s total revenues of $46.7 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $40 million. It recorded revenues of $8.8 million in the year-ago period.
Quarter in Detail
Total revenues consist of product revenues from Sunosi, Auvelity and royalty revenues.
Net product revenues were $46 million in the quarter compared with $8.8 million in the year-ago period. The figure beat our model estimate of $37.1 million. Royalty revenues totaled $0.7 million for the quarter, reflecting Sunosi sales in the out-licensed territories.
Auvelity recorded sales of $27.6 million, up 76% from the previous quarter’s level, reflecting growth in prescription demand. The figure beat our model estimate of $23 million. There were no Auvelity sales in the comparable period of 2022.
Sunosi’s net product sales were $18.4 million, up 117% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Total prescriptions for Sunosi grew 15% year over year and 8% sequentially.
Research and development expenses (including stock-based compensation) amounted to $20.6 million, up 30.4% from the year-ago quarter’s level. The increase was due to higher costs associated with clinical studies, personnel and post-marketing commitments for Sunosi and Auvelity.
Selling, general and administrative expenses (including stock-based compensation) totaled $78.9 million, up 153% year over year. The significant increase was due to higher commercial activities for Sunosi and Auvelity.
2023 Guidance
Management believes that its cash balance of $437.1 million (as of June 2023 end) is enough to fund future operations into cash flow positivity.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -12.52% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Axsome has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the lowest quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Axsome has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Axsome belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY - Free Report) , has gained 0.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2023.
Bristol Myers reported revenues of $11.23 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -5.6%. EPS of $1.75 for the same period compares with $1.93 a year ago.
Bristol Myers is expected to post earnings of $1.84 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -7.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.8%.
Bristol Myers has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.