Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN Quick QuoteMTN - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Sep 28, after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company recorded a negative earnings surprise of 7.9%.

How Are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter is pegged at a loss of $3.28 per share compared with a loss of $2.70 reported in the prior-year quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $282.5 million. The metric suggests an increase of 5.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Vail Resorts’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 top line is likely to have been driven by solid contributions from the Mountain segment’s revenues. Strength in destination visitation, and a solid lift in ticket sales at all North American destination Mountain resorts and regional ski areas are expected to have aided the company’s performance. Our model predicts the Mountain segment’s net revenues to rise 12.4% year over year to $207.7 million.

MTN has been witnessing robust demand with respect to the Australian Ski season. Season to date (through Jun 1, 2023), its Epic Australia Pass sales were up 16% on a year-over-year basis. Along with securing reservations for the upcoming winter season in Australia, these passes establish early commitments from Australian guests for North American ski resorts in the 2023/2024 winter season. This positive performance bodes well for Australian and North American winter destinations.

However, a rise in operating expenses is likely to have dented margins in the to-be-reported quarter. For the fiscal fourth quarter, our model suggests total segmental operating expenses to jump 9.8% year over year to $363.7 million. We estimate total Mountain operating expenses to climb 14.7% year over year to $283.4 million.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI Quick QuoteBJRI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +133.33% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of BJ's Restaurants have declined 0.8% in the past year. BJRI’s earnings outshined the consensus estimate in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 121.2%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE Quick QuoteCAKE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.57% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of Cheesecake have gained 1.4% in the past year. CAKE’s earnings outpaced the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average negative surprise being 24.7%.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG Quick QuoteCMG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.99% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Shares of Chipotle have gained 22.4% in the past year. CMG’s earnings surpassed the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 4.8%.

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