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HP (HPQ) Down 12.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for HP (HPQ - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 12.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is HP due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

HP Q3 Earnings Match Estimates, Revenues Decline Y/Y

HP Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2023 non-GAAP earnings of 86 cents per share, which matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate and came within management’s previously guided range of 81-91 cents.

However, the bottom line declined 17% from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $1.03 per share. This was mainly due to lower revenues, increased pricing competition and unfavorable currency exchange rates, partially offset by efficient cost management.

HP’s net revenues of $13.1 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.23% and declined 9.9% year over year. In constant currency (cc), revenues declined 7% in the third quarter. The dismal top line reflected a weak performance in HPQ’s Personal Systems (PS) and Printers segments.

Quarter in Detail

Personal Systems revenues (67.9% of net revenues) came in at $8.9 billion, which was 11% lower than the year-ago quarter’s figure (8% down at cc).

HP’s total PC units sold were up 3% on a year-over-year basis, with 8% growth in Consumer PS shipments while Commercial PS units sold remained flat year over year. Revenues from the Consumer PS and Commercial PS segments registered a year-over-year decline of 12% and 11%, respectively.

The printing business’ revenues (32.1% of net revenues) decreased 7% year over year (down 5% at cc) to $4.3 billion, mainly due to lower Consumer Printing and Supplies revenues.

Consumer Printing net revenues were down 28% and Commercial Printing net revenues were down 6%. Supplies net revenues were down 2% (flat in constant currency).

Total hardware units declined 19% overall, with Consumer Printing units down 20% and Commercial Printing units down 8%.

Region-wise, in constant currency, Americas declined 8%, EMEA fell 5% and APJ decreased 9%, due to weakened demand in China.

Operating Results

Segment-wise, Personal Systems’ non-GAAP operating margin contracted 10 basis points (bps) to 6.6% owing to increased pricing competition, mix currency and higher operating expense due to the Poly acquisition. This was partially offset by lower costs, including commodity costs, structural cost savings and logistics expense.

The Printing division’s non-GAAP operating margin shrunk 120 bps to 18.6% due to competitive pricing and unfavorable currency, partially offset by structural cost savings and favorable mix.

HP’s overall non-GAAP operating margin from continuing operations of 10.3% contracted 10 bps year over year.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

HP ended the fiscal third quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.7 billion, down from $1.94 billion at the end of the previous quarter.

During the quarter, HPQ generated $1 billion worth of cash for operational activities and $0.9 billion in free cash flow.

The company returned $0.3 billion to its shareholders in the form of cash dividends in the fiscal third quarter.

Fourth-Quarter & Fiscal 2023 Guidance

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, HP estimates non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) between 85 cents and 97 cents.

For fiscal 2023, HP estimates non-GAAP diluted net EPS in the range of $3.23 to $3.35. It also continues to estimate generating free cash flow of $3 billion in the fiscal 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

VGM Scores

Currently, HP has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, HP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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