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Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: PulteGroup, KB Home and Toll Brothers
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For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – October 5, 2023 – Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian says, "For 2023 Q3, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be down -2.0% from the same period last year on +0.6% higher revenues."
Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
For 2023 Q3, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be down -2.0% from the same period last year on +0.6% higher revenues, the 4th back-to-back quarter of declining earnings for the index.
Excluding the drag from the Energy sector, whose earnings are expected to decline -36.7% in Q3, earnings for the other 15 Zacks sectors in the S&P 500 index would be up +2.9% on +3.2% higher revenues.
Estimates for 2023 Q3 held up much better than had been the case in the comparable periods of other recent quarters. In fact, Q3 earnings estimates in the aggregate were barely down since the start of the period, with estimates modestly up when negative revisions to the Energy or Finance sector estimates are excluded.
For the 17 S&P 500 companies that have already reported results in recent days for their fiscal quarters ending in August that we count as part of the Q3 tally, total earnings are up +0.6% on +4.02% higher revenues, with 82.4% beating EPS estimates and 70.6% beating revenue estimates.
We have regularly been flagging the steady improvement in the revisions trend since April 2023, with the trend becoming more entrenched in recent months. In order to see this improvement, we have to look below the index level to appreciate the cross-current in estimates at the sector levels.
The aggregate Q3 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 index has declined about -0.1% since the start of the period, with rising estimates for six sectors, including the Tech sector, offsetting continued weakness of varying magnitudes in the remaining sectors. Had it not been for weakness in the Energy or Finance sector estimates, the revisions trend for Q3 for the S&P 500 index would be modestly positive since the start of the period.
In addition to the Tech sector, Q3 estimates have moved higher for the Construction, Autos, Medical, Retail, and Industrials sectors.
For the Construction sector, you can see this favorable revisions trend in estimates for homebuilders like PulteGroup (PHM - Free Report) , KB Home (KBH - Free Report) and Toll Brothers (TOL - Free Report) .
PulteGroup and Toll Brothers shares are up +58.2% and +42.7% this year, handily outperforming the broader market’s +11.5% gain. While these stocks have lost ground in recent days in response to the rising treasury yields, it will be interesting what happens to the revisions should rates continue going up.
As you can see from these quarterly earnings-growth expectations, the long-feared recession doesn’t show up in this near-term earnings outlook. A big-picture view of corporate profitability on a long-term basis doesn’t leave much room for a recession either.
Given the emerging consensus on the ‘soft-landing’ outlook for the economy, one can expect this favorable turn in the overall earnings picture to strengthen further as companies report Q3 results and share trends in underlying business.
Why Haven’t You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +6.2 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +46.4%, +49.5% and +55.2% per year. Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: PulteGroup, KB Home and Toll Brothers
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – October 5, 2023 – Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian says, "For 2023 Q3, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be down -2.0% from the same period last year on +0.6% higher revenues."
Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
We have regularly been flagging the steady improvement in the revisions trend since April 2023, with the trend becoming more entrenched in recent months. In order to see this improvement, we have to look below the index level to appreciate the cross-current in estimates at the sector levels.
The aggregate Q3 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 index has declined about -0.1% since the start of the period, with rising estimates for six sectors, including the Tech sector, offsetting continued weakness of varying magnitudes in the remaining sectors. Had it not been for weakness in the Energy or Finance sector estimates, the revisions trend for Q3 for the S&P 500 index would be modestly positive since the start of the period.
In addition to the Tech sector, Q3 estimates have moved higher for the Construction, Autos, Medical, Retail, and Industrials sectors.
For the Construction sector, you can see this favorable revisions trend in estimates for homebuilders like PulteGroup (PHM - Free Report) , KB Home (KBH - Free Report) and Toll Brothers (TOL - Free Report) .
PulteGroup and Toll Brothers shares are up +58.2% and +42.7% this year, handily outperforming the broader market’s +11.5% gain. While these stocks have lost ground in recent days in response to the rising treasury yields, it will be interesting what happens to the revisions should rates continue going up.
As you can see from these quarterly earnings-growth expectations, the long-feared recession doesn’t show up in this near-term earnings outlook. A big-picture view of corporate profitability on a long-term basis doesn’t leave much room for a recession either.
Given the emerging consensus on the ‘soft-landing’ outlook for the economy, one can expect this favorable turn in the overall earnings picture to strengthen further as companies report Q3 results and share trends in underlying business.
Why Haven’t You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +6.2 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +46.4%, +49.5% and +55.2% per year. Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
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Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.