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Today is a bank holiday, but one in which the stock market is still open: Indigenous Peoples Day, or Columbus Day, depending on the region of the country you live in. As such, there are no government economic data reports out today; in fact, we’re a little quiet around here until mid-week, when the latest inflation metrics hit the tape — Producer Price Index (PPI) of Wednesday and the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.
PPI data has been among the first to approach what the Fed considers optimum inflation, +2% — its core year-over-year print reached +3.0% in August, while headline year-over-year is the first data point to come in beneath optimum inflation, +1.6%. But it is the CPI data that really tells the inflation tale, and here we expect +3.6% on headline year over year, down 10 basis points (bps) from the August print, with core year over year expected down 20 bps month over month, +4.1%.
Of course, these are just estimates, and actual figures surprising to the down side would be welcome. That said, August’s core CPI year over year print was already the lowest since mid-to-late 2021, +4.3%, having come way down from September 2022’s +6.6%. It also illustrates that these numbers do not diminish rapidly; even at current low levels expected, +4.1% is still more than double the Fed’s preferred inflation level.
This week also ushers in, slowly at first, Q3 earnings season. PepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) is the first big name up tomorrow, followed by Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) on Thursday and the start of the big banks reporting Friday, including Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) . Earnings season will give us a detailed illustration of how the economy is moving along, and whether raised guidance can help foster a bullish mood among stock investors here in the final quarter of the year.
For this morning, with no Speaker of the House yet on Capitol Hill, violence and turmoil erupting in Israel, and bond yields (closed for today’s holiday) frozen at 16-year highs, it’s understandable that pre-market levels are down at this hour: the Dow, looking to break a three-week losing streak, is currently -212 points (giving up a good chunk of the gains made Friday), the S&P 500 is -30 and the Nasdaq -102 points. Oil prices remain high on the global market, adding to consumer headwinds. Let’s see if anything changes.
Image: Bigstock
Stocks Sell Off During Bank Holiday
Today is a bank holiday, but one in which the stock market is still open: Indigenous Peoples Day, or Columbus Day, depending on the region of the country you live in. As such, there are no government economic data reports out today; in fact, we’re a little quiet around here until mid-week, when the latest inflation metrics hit the tape — Producer Price Index (PPI) of Wednesday and the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday.
PPI data has been among the first to approach what the Fed considers optimum inflation, +2% — its core year-over-year print reached +3.0% in August, while headline year-over-year is the first data point to come in beneath optimum inflation, +1.6%. But it is the CPI data that really tells the inflation tale, and here we expect +3.6% on headline year over year, down 10 basis points (bps) from the August print, with core year over year expected down 20 bps month over month, +4.1%.
Of course, these are just estimates, and actual figures surprising to the down side would be welcome. That said, August’s core CPI year over year print was already the lowest since mid-to-late 2021, +4.3%, having come way down from September 2022’s +6.6%. It also illustrates that these numbers do not diminish rapidly; even at current low levels expected, +4.1% is still more than double the Fed’s preferred inflation level.
This week also ushers in, slowly at first, Q3 earnings season. PepsiCo (PEP - Free Report) is the first big name up tomorrow, followed by Delta Air Lines (DAL - Free Report) on Thursday and the start of the big banks reporting Friday, including Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) . Earnings season will give us a detailed illustration of how the economy is moving along, and whether raised guidance can help foster a bullish mood among stock investors here in the final quarter of the year.
For this morning, with no Speaker of the House yet on Capitol Hill, violence and turmoil erupting in Israel, and bond yields (closed for today’s holiday) frozen at 16-year highs, it’s understandable that pre-market levels are down at this hour: the Dow, looking to break a three-week losing streak, is currently -212 points (giving up a good chunk of the gains made Friday), the S&P 500 is -30 and the Nasdaq -102 points. Oil prices remain high on the global market, adding to consumer headwinds. Let’s see if anything changes.
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