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Novo Nordisk (NVO) Raises Sales Outlook for 2023, Shares Gain

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Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) upped its sales and operating profit forecast for 2023 yet again on the back of higher demand for diabetes drug Ozempic (semaglutide) and obesity drug Wegovy. 

Sales for 2023 are now projected to grow by 32-38%, up from the earlier estimate of 27-33%.  Operating profit growth is now estimated at 40-46%, up from the previous 31-37% estimate.

Once-weekly subcutaneous Ozempic is currently approved in 0.5 mg, 1.0 mg and 2.0 mg doses to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus, adjunct to diet and exercise. Ozempic is also approved to reduce the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus and established cardiovascular disease.

Semaglutide injection 2.4 mg is approved under the brand name Wegovy for treating obesity.

Please note that the company raised its annual guidance concurrent with second-quarter results earlier.

Novo Nordisk A/S Price and Consensus

Novo Nordisk A/S Price and Consensus

Novo Nordisk A/S price-consensus-chart | Novo Nordisk A/S Quote

 

The company also announced that sales increased by 33% and operating profit increased by 37% (at constant exchange rates) in the first nine months of 2023. For the third quarter, sales increased by 38%, while operating profit growth came in at 47%.

Shares of the company gained 1.96% following the announcement.

Year-to-date, shares of Novo Nordisk have shot up 50.9% compared with the industry’s 8.5% rise.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

NVO has had a tremendous run in 2023 so far due to robust uptake and positive news flow on these two drugs.

Shares of the company also gained last week when it announced its decision to stop the kidney outcomes study, FLOW, on Ozempic. The decision was based on the positive recommendation of an independent data monitoring committee (“DMC”).

The company’s FLOW study is evaluating the efficacy of Ozempic for preventing the progression of renal impairment in people with type II diabetes and chronic kidney disease (“CKD”) compared with placebo.

The results from an interim analysis of the FLOW study data met certain pre-specified criteria for stopping the study early for efficacy. The DMC thus recommended that the study be stopped at the interim analysis. Data readout from the FLOW study is expected during the first half of 2024.

NVO continues to expand its supply capacity for Wegovy post re-launch in the United States as well as in other geographies. The consecutive increase in guidance suggests increased traction of both Ozempic and Wegovy for their respective indications.

The obesity market has garnered much interest lately, giving impetus to drugs like Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s (LLY - Free Report) Mounjaro (tirzepatide), among others.

LLY’s Mounjaro, a once-weekly glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, was approved in 2022 as an adjunct to diet and exercise to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes.

It is currently under review in the United States and European Union for adults living with obesity or overweight with weight-related comorbidities. It is also being studied as a potential treatment for people with obesity and/or overweight, heart failure, preserved ejection fraction and CKD.

The recent results from the late-stage SURMOUNT-3 study evaluating Mounjaro in adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related comorbidities, excluding type 2 diabetes, showed an additional 21.1% weight loss after 12 weeks of intensive lifestyle intervention.

Zacks Rank and Stocks to Consider.

Novo Nordisk currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

A couple of better-ranked stocks in the healthcare industry are Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) and Dynavax Technologies (DVAX - Free Report) , each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Loss estimates for Acadia for 2023 have narrowed to 37 cents from 42 cents in the past 60 days, while earnings estimates for 2024 are pegged at 69 cents per share. The stock has surged 45.3% so far this year.

Loss estimates for Dynavax for 2023 have narrowed to 23 cents from 51 cents in the past 90 days, while earnings estimates for 2024 are pinned at 3 cents per share. The stock has surged 33.8% so far this year.

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