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What to Know About Altria (MO) as It Queues for Q3 Earnings?

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Altria Group, Inc. (MO - Free Report) is likely to register top-and-bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2023 earnings on Oct 26. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.5 billion, suggesting a rise of 1.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for quarterly earnings has declined by a penny in the past 30 days to $1.29 per share. However, this calls for growth of 0.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. MO has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 0.8%, on average.

Factors to Note

Altria has been benefiting from its strong pricing power. Though higher pricing might lead to a possible decline in cigarette consumption, it is seen that smokers tend to absorb price increases due to the addictive quality of cigarettes. Higher pricing variance was an upside to the company’s performance in the second quarter of 2023. Pricing is likely to have remained a driver in the quarter under review as well.

Altria Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Altria Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Altria Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Altria Group, Inc. Quote

Altria’s focus on oral tobacco products has been working well. The company has been responding to consumers’ rising inclination toward reduced-risk products by offering several oral tobacco, e-vapor and heated tobacco products.  Altria (through its subsidiary Helix Innovations) has full global ownership of on! — a popular tobacco-derived nicotine (TDN) pouch product. on! has been a worthwhile addition to Altria’s smokeless portfolio as oral TDN products are gaining popularity in the United States due to their low-risk claims.

Within the smoke-free category, management has been exploring ways to best compete in the significant e-vapor category. Per the second-quarter earnings call, e-vapor remains the biggest smoke-free category in the United States — the most successful in shifting smokers away from cigarettes. The acquisition of NJOY Holdings is noteworthy in this respect. These upsides are likely to have driven Altria’s results in the third quarter. The consensus estimate for Oral Tobacco Products revenues for the third quarter stands at $670 million, in line with the figure reported in the year-ago period.

However, soft cigarette shipment volumes have been a concern. In its second-quarter earnings release, management stated that the overall cigarette industry has been bearing the brunt of the inflationary environment, which has affected Adult Tobacco Consumers’ (“ATC”) spending patterns. As the external landscape remains dynamic, Altria continues assessing economic factors like elevated inflation, higher interest rates, global supply-chain hurdles and ATC dynamics, such as purchasing patterns, the adoption of smoke-free products and disposable income.

Apart from this, cigarette shipment volumes, in general, have been affected by anti-tobacco campaigns and increased consumer awareness regarding the harmful impacts of tobacco consumption. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Smokeable Product revenues is pegged at $5,744 million for the third quarter, down from $5,882 million reported in the same period last year.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Altria Group this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Altria Group carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.80%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies worth considering as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time:

Church & Dwight Co. (CHD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is slated to witness top-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.43 billion, which suggests growth of 8.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. Pls add the Zacks Rank 1 promo link.

Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Church & Dwight’s quarterly earnings has moved up by a penny over the last seven days to 68 cents per share, it suggests a decline of 10.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. CHD delivered an earnings surprise of 12.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

The Boston Beer Company (SAM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.71% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Boston Beer Company’s quarterly earnings per share of $4.25 suggests an increase of 11.3% from the year-ago quarter’s levels.

SAM has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 74.9%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Boston Beer Company’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $592.9 million, indicating a drop of 0.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.37% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Colgate-Palmolive’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.8 billion, suggesting growth of 8.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 80 cents per share, which indicates 8.1% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported number. CL delivered an earnings surprise of 1.7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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