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AbbVie (ABBV) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 27, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.30%.
Factors to Consider
AbbVie’s top line is expected to have been driven by sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which registered strong growth in the past few quarters. The upside can be attributed to label expansions of both drugs to allow use in new patient populations in the last few quarters. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
During the third quarter, AbbVie reported data from separate head-to-head studies, which showed that treatment with Skyrizi exhibited superiority against blockbuster drugs Otezla and Stelara in plaque psoriasis and Crohn’s disease indications, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Skyrizi are pegged at $2.14 billion and $2.10 billion, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Rinvoq are pegged at $1.04 billion and $1.03 billion, respectively.
Growth in Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales is expected to partially make up for the fall in sales of the flagship drug Humira’. The drug lost exclusivity in the United States following the launch of Amgen’s Amjevita in first-quarter 2023, the first U.S. biosimilar to Humira. Many other companies, like Boehringer Ingelheim, Samsung Bioepis and Sandoz, have launched Humira biosimilars. More such biosimilars are expected to be launched this year. The impact of these biosimilars on Humira sales will be seen in subsequent quarters. The drug has already lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories following the launch of generics in 2018.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Humira are pegged at $3.49 billion.
In the hematologic oncology segment, AbbVie markets two drugs, Imbruvica and Venclexta, in partnership with Johnson & Johnson and Roche, respectively.
We expect J&J-partnered Imbruvica sales to decline due to novel oral therapies hurting the drug’s sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $876 million and $889 million, respectively.
Roche-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $564 million and $550 million, respectively.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to rise slightly as we expect a slight recovery in demand for Botox and Juvederm sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for aesthetics product sales are pegged at $1.31 billion and $1.33 billion, respectively.
Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters, with sales likely to be driven by the recently approved migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate suggest neuroscience product sales at $1.97 billion and $1.98 billion, respectively.
Investors are likely to forward questions regarding updates on new product launches.
Key Development in Q3
Last month, AbbVie’s newest hematological cancer drug, Epkinly, received approval from the European Commission to treat adults with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (“DLBCL”). The drug will be marketed in Europe under the trade name Tepkinly.
In August, Aquipta received approval in the EU for the preventive treatment of migraine. The drug is being marketed under the trade name Qulipta in the United States.
Earnings Surprise History
AbbVie’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.41%, on average.
Shares of AbbVie have lost 9.5% year to date against the industry’s 4.6% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of -0.31% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.86 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.87.
Here are some large-cap biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Amgen’s stock has risen 6.2% year to date. Amgen beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AMGN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.90%, on average. Amgen is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct 31, before market opens.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has lost 5.9% year to date. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AZN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 9.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.73% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Merck’s stock has lost 7.5% year to date. Merck beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. MRK delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.05%, on average. Merck is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct 26, before market opens.
Image: Shutterstock
AbbVie (ABBV) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2023 results on Oct 27, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.30%.
Factors to Consider
AbbVie’s top line is expected to have been driven by sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which registered strong growth in the past few quarters. The upside can be attributed to label expansions of both drugs to allow use in new patient populations in the last few quarters. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
During the third quarter, AbbVie reported data from separate head-to-head studies, which showed that treatment with Skyrizi exhibited superiority against blockbuster drugs Otezla and Stelara in plaque psoriasis and Crohn’s disease indications, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Skyrizi are pegged at $2.14 billion and $2.10 billion, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Rinvoq are pegged at $1.04 billion and $1.03 billion, respectively.
Growth in Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales is expected to partially make up for the fall in sales of the flagship drug Humira’. The drug lost exclusivity in the United States following the launch of Amgen’s Amjevita in first-quarter 2023, the first U.S. biosimilar to Humira. Many other companies, like Boehringer Ingelheim, Samsung Bioepis and Sandoz, have launched Humira biosimilars. More such biosimilars are expected to be launched this year. The impact of these biosimilars on Humira sales will be seen in subsequent quarters. The drug has already lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories following the launch of generics in 2018.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Humira are pegged at $3.49 billion.
In the hematologic oncology segment, AbbVie markets two drugs, Imbruvica and Venclexta, in partnership with Johnson & Johnson and Roche, respectively.
We expect J&J-partnered Imbruvica sales to decline due to novel oral therapies hurting the drug’s sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $876 million and $889 million, respectively.
Roche-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $564 million and $550 million, respectively.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to rise slightly as we expect a slight recovery in demand for Botox and Juvederm sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for aesthetics product sales are pegged at $1.31 billion and $1.33 billion, respectively.
Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters, with sales likely to be driven by the recently approved migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate suggest neuroscience product sales at $1.97 billion and $1.98 billion, respectively.
Investors are likely to forward questions regarding updates on new product launches.
Key Development in Q3
Last month, AbbVie’s newest hematological cancer drug, Epkinly, received approval from the European Commission to treat adults with relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (“DLBCL”). The drug will be marketed in Europe under the trade name Tepkinly.
In August, Aquipta received approval in the EU for the preventive treatment of migraine. The drug is being marketed under the trade name Qulipta in the United States.
Earnings Surprise History
AbbVie’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.41%, on average.
AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
AbbVie Inc. price-eps-surprise | AbbVie Inc. Quote
Shares of AbbVie have lost 9.5% year to date against the industry’s 4.6% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of -0.31% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.86 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.87.
Zacks Rank: AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stock to Consider
Here are some large-cap biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Amgen’s stock has risen 6.2% year to date. Amgen beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AMGN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.90%, on average. Amgen is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct 31, before market opens.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.13% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has lost 5.9% year to date. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AZN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.38%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Nov 9.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.73% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Merck’s stock has lost 7.5% year to date. Merck beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. MRK delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.05%, on average. Merck is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Oct 26, before market opens.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.