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Phillips 66 (PSX) Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2023 earnings on Oct 27, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings of $3.87 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.54 due to lower expenses. PSX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 12.2%. This is depicted in the graph below.

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 price-eps-surprise | Phillips 66 Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $4.72 has witnessed three upward and three downward revisions over the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a significant decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues of $34.4 billion indicates a 30% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

Phillips 66 is likely to have generated stable earnings from its midstream business, since the pipeline and storage assets are highly integrated with its refining, marketing and specialties, and chemical segments. We expect PSX to have generated adjusted pre-tax earnings of $625.6 million from its midstream operations, indicating year-over-year growth of 2.9%.

However, a significantly higher oil price in the third quarter is likely to have hurt the company’s refining operations by maintaining high input costs. We expect adjusted pre-tax earnings from refining to decline 43.6% year over year.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for PSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Phillips 66’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Viper Energy Partners LP (VNOM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.11% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The partnership is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VNOM’s earnings is pegged at 40 cents per share, indicating a decline from the year-ago quarter’s recorded figure.

Antero Resources Corporation (AR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1,219.97% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 25.

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.17% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Antero Midstream is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AM’s earnings is pegged at 21 cents per share, implying year-over-year growth of 5%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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