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Inversion of Yield Curve Tight at 14 bps

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We kick off the busiest week in Q3 earnings season so far relatively quietly, with no marquee stock names posting results today. There are also no big economic prints forthcoming until Tuesday, either, but it’s not stopping pre-market futures from sagging yet again. Off mid-October highs, all major indices are down roughly -0.4%: the Dow -160 points, the S&P 500 -17 and the Nasdaq -57. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -5 points at this hour.

Things will pick up significantly as the week progresses, however, with big-name earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) , Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , Meta (META - Free Report) , Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) and scores of others before the week is finished. After today’s close, we’ll get results from Logitech (LOGI - Free Report) , Agilysys (AGYS - Free Report) and W.T. Berkley (WRB - Free Report) , among others.

Economic reports due out during the course of the week are extensive, as well: Tuesday brings the latest Case-Shiller home price index and flash PMI Manufacturing & Services; Wednesday is New Home Sales; Thursday the first look at Q3 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Trade Balance and Pending Home Sales; and Friday brings us September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). This last is especially key for the Fed’s determination on interest rates going forward.

Bond yields are still a major factor in putting pressure on the equities market, and there’s only so much earnings season and PCE figures will be able to do about it. The good news is that the inversion of the yield curve has gotten the tightest in recent memory — 14 basis points (bps) — but at 5.11% on 2s and 4.97% on 10s, that’s about it for the good news. We may see that inversion finally go flat right around 5%, an historically high rate.

Chevron (CVX - Free Report) continues the mergers & acquisitions activity in Big Oil this morning, announcing a $53 billion all-stock purchase of oil & gas explorer Hess Corp. (HES - Free Report) . This follows the recent buyout of ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) when they bought hydrocarbon explorer Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD - Free Report) . Both Chevron and Hess are trading lower on this news: -2.3% and -0.3%, respectively, though the consolidation does make sense looking longer-term.

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